情报沟通研究进展及其对风险决策的启示  

Frontiers of Intelligence Communication Studies and Its Insights for Risk Decision-Making

作　　者：连婉廷 张力伟[1] 赵吉 Lian Wanting;Zhang Liwei;Zhao Ji(School of Public Administration,Jilin University,Changchun 130012;School of International and Public Affairs,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200030)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学行政学院,长春130012 [2]上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院,上海200030

出　　处：《情报杂志》2021年第6期52-58,共7页Journal of Intelligence

摘　　要：[目的/意义]情报沟通是情报过程的重要组成部分,也是有效决策的基本前提。目前,国际情报学界产生了一系列安全领域情报沟通策略的研究。立足于总体国家安全观,总结有关研究的新进展,理解情报沟通的新理论新方法,有助于优化沟通流程,提升决策质量。[方法/过程]通过系统性文献回顾,从结构和技术两个维度分析情报沟通的方法,构建一个情报沟通的系统模型。立足于当下复杂的安全环境,为风险决策提供借鉴。[结果/结论]情报沟通的首要原则是理解情报搜集者和决策者之间的差异与共性,将情报沟通分为不同阶段加以调适。对于情报沟通的技术而言,可以采用可视化与循证的方法。有效的风险决策也应立足于上述原则,提升决策的科学性。[Purpose/Significance]Intelligence communication is a vital part of intelligence process,and is the fundamental premise of effective decision-making.Currently,international intelligence academia produced series of studies of intelligence communication in security area.Based on the holistic approach to national security,explaining the frontiers on intelligence communication studies with understanding the novel theory and method of intelligence communication can add values optimizing communication procedure and improving decision-making quality.[Method/Process]Based on systematic literature review,this article analyzes the method of security intelligence communication two dimensions,which are"structural"and"technical".Also,a systematic model of intelligence communication is given.In view of current security environment in complexity,insights for risk decision-making is further summarized.[Result/Conclusion]The primary principle of intelligence communication is to clarify the similarity and difference between the intelligence collector and policymaker.And then,various phases of intelligence communication should be adjusted respectively.For the technology of intelligence communication,visualization and evidence-based approach can be used.To sum up,effective risk decision-making ought to follow these rationales for promoting its scientificity.

关 键 词：情报沟通 情报过程 不确定性 有效决策 风险决策 国家安全 

分 类 号：G350[文化科学—情报学]