船舶大风浪航行安全评价方法综述  

Synthetic analysis of the safety assessment methods for ships navigation in heavy sea

作　　者：王凤武[1] 尹忠勋 徐翌森 刘思航 WANG Feng-wu;YIN Zhong-xun;XU Yi-sen;LIU Si-hang(Navigation College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航海学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2021年第2期475-482,共8页Journal of Safety and Environment

摘　　要：船舶大风浪航行安全一直以来是交通运输领域中较为热门的研究课题。为了能更科学准确地对船舶大风浪航行进行安全评价,综述了船舶大风浪航行的安全影响因素和评价对象。由于船舶大风浪航行安全性指标复杂多样,对于不同评价对象的评价方法也不尽相同。在对船舶大风浪航行安全评价方法进行评述并总结的基础上,就目前应用较多的几类评价方法的优缺点进行了比较分析。结果表明,致灾因素之间的关联性、评价的主观性和准确性、风险的变化性和仿真的复杂性是尚待研究的主要问题,针对性地提出结合机器学习算法、评价方法组合、动态评价和模拟器模拟的新思路。The aim of this article is to assess the marine ships navigational safety in braving the high risk of vast ocean waves scientifically and accurately. To achieve the research goal,this article has first of all summarized the influential factors and analyzed their navigation safety obstacles so as to provide a certain reference for ship owners,administrators and others to heighten the navigational safety effectively. And,then,we have made a total summary of 12 assessment methods in 6 categories,based on the revision of the assessment methods in comparison with the advantages and disadvantages of nowadays popularized major assessment methods in this way. And,thirdly,we have also proposed our own problems in this way. The results of our assessment show that the current system of the engineering assessment methods can hardly be available to analyze the relationship between the hazard factors,due to their subjectivity of the mathematical assessment models,whereas the accident analysis assessment method is difficult to show the dynamic changes of the accident risks in adjusting and regulating the environment parameters of the simulation experiments. And,therefore,it has pushed us to bring forward 4 new ideas to make up for the deficiency of the assessment methods. In addition,machine learning algorithms also enable us to explore the correlative hazard factors and alleviate the subjectivity of the evaluation results promptly. The dynamic assessment of the above mentioned correlative hazard factors can reflect the changing regularity of the risk factors involved. What is more,the simulator simulation can make realize experiments with ships promptly. And,so,the results of our simulated experiments prove that the safety assessment methods for their navigation in the vast marine conditions are not enough perfect,and,in turn,ought to be improved more scientifically and objectively based on the safety assessment methods. And,so,all the above mentioned factors and needs to push us to propose the following 4 new ideas to referen

关 键 词：安全工程 船舶 大风浪航行 评价方法 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]