群体突发事件极端化的影响因素研究  

Trace and identify the influential factors of the group-size emergency extreme events

作　　者：杨振宏[1] 钟丹妮 薛静 张金 王文杰 YANG Zhen-hong;ZHONG Dan-ni;XUE Jing;ZHANG Jin;WANG Wen-jie(School of Resource Engineering,Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi'an 710055,China)

机构地区：[1]西安建筑科技大学资源工程学院,西安710055

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2021年第2期727-732,共6页Journal of Safety and Environment

摘　　要：为了预防和控制群体突发事件,研究群体突发事件极端化的影响因素,基于文献研究法和典型案例分析,从群体突发事件极端化的参与者情绪、围观者行为、信息传播、政府应急水平4个维度中提取14个极端化影响因素构建指标体系,首先运用ISM解释结构模型分析各因素之间的联系并进行分类;其次用ANP网络层次分析法对各影响因素的影响力进行排序,确定指标的综合权重;最后构建群体突发事件极端化的影响因素层级结构网络模型。结果表明,多层递阶的影响因素网络模型可以有效建立群体突发事件极端化的影响结构,其中政府应急水平因素组所占权重最高。The given paper is to devote itself to tracing and identifying the status and nature of the group-size emergency events both at home and abroad and clarify its author’s points of view on such group emergency events.At the same time,the author is also inclined to present and provide for a decision-making basis for preventing from and controlling over such group emergency events from the theoretical view-point of the official emergency control strategy.To achieve the above mentioned viewpoints,we have collected and summarized 30 typical cases of the group emergency extreme events through literature overview and on-site investigation.From the 4 aspects of the participants’emotion,the onlookers’behavior,the information dissemination and the governmental official emergency control and the management level,we have built up 14 influential factors by extracting an indexical system.First of all,the structural model has been managed to explain by using the ISM with the correlation analysis of the 14 influential factors so as to gain the mutual influence of the factors concerned.In correspindence with the Tamura H’s hierarchical division method we have proposed,the 14 influential factors can be divided into 3 groups,that is,the driving factors,the linkage factors and dependable factors.And,next,we have managed to analyze the influence of the participants’emotions,the onlookers’behaviors,the information dissemination and the governmental official emergency response,which may account for and be contributed to 17.23%,18.70%,56.18%and 17.40%of the total sum of the normalized weights respectively and correspondingly to the ANP network model.What is more,of the total sum of the normalized weights of the related factors,the highest weight should be alleged to the factor of the governmental emergency level,which can then be followed by the information dissemination,and the sensitivity weight of the 14 influential factors to events.Thus,it can be seen from the hierarchical network structure of the group emergency extreme

关 键 词：安全管理工程 群体突发事件 极端化 关键因素 ISM-ANP模型 

分 类 号：X922[环境科学与工程—安全科学]