老龄化影响产业结构升级投资机制的计量检验  

Econometric Test for the Investment Mechanism on the Influence of Aging on Industrial Structure Upgrading

作　　者：聂高辉[1] 李晟全 李泓良 Nie Gaohui;Li Shengquan;Li Hongliang(Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330032,China)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学,江西南昌330032

出　　处：《廊坊师范学院学报（自然科学版）》2021年第2期64-69,共6页Journal of Langfang Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“我国人口老龄化的产业结构升级溢出效应研究”(17BJY077)。

摘　　要：探讨人口老龄化影响产业结构升级的新投资机制,提出一些政策启示。基于索洛经济增长模型对这一机制进行数理分析,得到了老龄化上升导致储蓄率下降、进而降低资本积累、最终阻碍产业结构升级的结果。进一步对1982-2019年的数据运用向量自回归模型进行计量检验,结果表明,老龄化、储蓄率、资本积累及产业结构升级四者间存在显著的长期均衡关系。具体来看,老龄化会影响储蓄率,储蓄率影响资本积累,资本积累与产业结构转型升级互相影响,这表明老龄化影响产业结构升级的投资机制是存在的。This article discusses a new investment mechanism in which aging affects the upgrading of industrial structure,and proposes some policy implications. Based on Solow’s economic growth model, the paper analyzes this mechanism mathematically, and finds that the rising of aging leads to a decline in the savings rate firstly, then reduces capital accumulation,eventually hinders the upgrading of industrial structure. Based on vector autoregressive model, the article conducts econometric tests by using data from 1982 to 2019. The results show that there is a significant long-term equilibrium relationship among aging, savings rate, capital accumulation and industrial structure upgrading. Specifically, aging affects the savings rate, the savings rate impacts capital accumulation, capital accumulation and industrial structure upgrading influences mutually. These results show that the investment mechanism of aging affecting industrial structure upgrading does exist.

关 键 词：老龄化 产业结构升级 投资机制 计量检验 

分 类 号：F064.1[经济管理—政治经济学]