基于Simpson公式的灰色模型钢轨大修周期研究  

Research on Grey Model for Rail Renewal Cycle Based on Simpson Formula

作　　者：于杰[1,2] 王齐荣 YU Jie;WANG Qirong(Key Laboratory of High-speed Railway Engineering,Ministry of Education,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China;School of Civil Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学高速铁路线路工程教育部重点实验室,成都610031 [2]西南交通大学土木工程学院,成都610031

出　　处：《铁道标准设计》2021年第6期26-31,共6页Railway Standard Design

基　　金：西南交通大学重点实验室开放项目(GD201817054)。

摘　　要：选择一种钢轨大修周期预测模型对保障列车安全运营具有重要意义。以传统灰色模型对钢轨大修周期进行预测,存在误差大、预测精度低等问题。对西南山区2条普速铁路钢轨伤损数据进行统计与皮尔森相关性分析,引入幂函数算子对不满足建模条件的原始数据进行弱化处理,代入基于Simpson公式改进背景值的灰色模型中,并将计算结果逆运算还原得到预测值。通过分析两线路的皮尔森相关系数,发现雨天行车、累计通过总重与钢轨伤损量存在极强相关性,验证了以累计通过总重度量钢轨大修周期的科学性;对比灰色模型的计算结果,可看出基于Simpson公式的改进灰色模型的预测精度有明显提高。综合两模型的预测结果,建议多雨地区工务段的普通铁路钢轨大修周期应调整为500 Mt。该模型具有精度高、平均相对误差小的优点,是一种钢轨大修周期的合理预测方法。Selecting a major repair cycle prediction model is of great significance to ensure the safe operation of trains.The prediction of rail renewal cycle with traditional grey model results in such problems as large errors and poor prediction accuracy.In this paper,statistical analysis and Pearson correlation analysis of the damage data from two general speed railway lines in the southwest mountainous area are conducted;power function operators are introduced to weaken the failing original data to meet the modeling conditions and brought into the grey model based on Simpson formula to improve the background value.The calculation result are reversed to obtain the predicted value.By analyzing the Pearson correlation coefficient of the two lines,it is found that there is a strong correlation between the rainy day driving,cumulative total weight and the rail damage,and the scientificity of using the cumulative total weight to measure the major repair cycle is verified.The comparison of the calculation results of the gray model shows that the prediction accuracy of the improved grey model based on the Simpson formula is significantly improved.Based on the prediction results of the two models,it is suggested that the major repair cycles of ordinary railway rails in the rainy maintenance section should be adjusted to 500 Mt.The model in this paper has the advantages of high accuracy and small average relative error,and proves to be a reasonable prediction method for major repair cycles.

关 键 词：普速铁路 钢轨 大修周期 相关性分析 灰色模型 SIMPSON公式 

分 类 号：U216.[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]