输变电工程造价水平智能评估与监测方法研究  

Research on Intelligent Evaluation and Monitoring Method of Cost level of Transmission and Transformation Projects

作　　者：杨龙 徐雄军[1] 黄丞远 薛田良[2] 张磊[2] YANG Long;XU Xiong-jun;HUANG Cheng-yuan;XUE Tian-liang;ZHANG Lei(Operation and Maintenance Department,State Grid Xiaogan Power Supply Company,Xiaogan 442000,China;College of Electrical and New Energy,Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China)

机构地区：[1]国网孝感供电公司运维检修部,湖北孝感442000 [2]三峡大学电气与新能源学院,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《电力学报》2021年第2期164-172,共9页Journal of Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61603212);湖北省面上类项目(考虑CHP机组弹性调节能力的综合能源系统协同负荷控制研究,2019CFB331);国网湖北省电力公司科技项目(基于高维小样本数据的多目标输变电工程技术经济管控研究,521538180015)。

摘　　要：随着输变电工程造价精细化管控的推进,构建智能化造价水平评估学习模型是实施输变电工程资产管理的前提。为实现精细化、科学化的电网工程造价管控,对实现工程造价管控的智能化、科学化展开研究,进而提出了一种输变电工程造价水平智能评估与监测方法。该方法针对输变电工程造价数据的高维小样本特性,构建了造价水平评估指标和监测误差指标,提出了一种基于随机比特森林的输变电工程造价数据特征选择方法。基于此,采用伞式评估监测器,构建了输变电工程造价水平评估与在线监测模型。以某省实际变电工程造价数据进行了算法有效性校验,结果表明所提方法具有较好的特征稳定性和评估精度,能实现输变电工程造价水平在线动态监测。With the advancement of sophisticated cost control of power transmission and transformation projects,building an intelligent cost level evaluation learning model is a prerequisite for implementing asset management of power transmission and transformation projects.In order to realize the refined and scientific power grid engineering cost control,the research on how to realize intelligent and scientific engineering cost control was carried out,and then an intelligent evaluation and monitoring method for the cost level of power transmission and transformation projects was proposed.According to the high-dimensional and small sample characteristics of transmission and transformation project cost data,this method constructed cost level evaluation indicators and monitoring error indicators,and proposed a random bit forest-based method for selecting characteristics of transmission and transformation project cost data.Based on this,an umbrella evaluation monitor was used to construct a cost level evaluation and online monitoring model for power transmission and transformation projects.The validity of the algorithm was verified with the actual cost data of a certain province.The results showed that the method proposed in this paper has good characteristic stability and evaluation accuracy,and it could realize the online dynamic monitoring of the cost of transmission and distribution projects.

关 键 词：输变电工程 造价水平评估与监测 高维小样本数据 深度学习 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]