武装组织治理制度与反叛成功  

Rebel Governance Regime and Insurgent Success

作　　者：周亦奇[1] ZHOU Yiqi(Shanghai Institutes for International Studies,Shanghai,200233)

机构地区：[1]上海国际问题研究院公共政策研究所,上海200233

出　　处：《国际安全研究》2021年第4期128-156,160,共30页Journal of International Security Studies

基　　金：2019年上海市哲学社会科学规划青年课题“非洲国家族群冲突风险预测”(项目批准号:2019EGJ002)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：当前武装组织治理制度建设成为内战研究的重点。武装组织治理制度是武装组织对其控制区域和民众管理的相应制度与规则体系。以反叛成功为分析对象,通过系统评估武装组织治理制度建设对其内战中获得冲突优势的影响,可以看到,武装组织的反叛成功并不直接由武装组织治理制度决定,而是取决于武装组织治理制度在内部与外部产生的效果。在内部维度,武装组织治理制度需要取得良好的相对治理绩效;在外部维度,武装组织治理制度需要一个有利的国际战略环境并可对其进行塑造。而武装组织治理制度并不能确保相应效果的实现。通过混合研究的模式对以上观点进行检验:在定量研究方面,通过两个不同层次的数据库对于武装组织治理制度与反叛成功的关系进行检验,发现武装组织治理制度与反叛成功之间无直接的联系;在案例比较研究方面,通过两个具体武装组织的实践案例(阿富汗塔利班和“伊斯兰国”组织)进行分析,可以发现武装组织治理制度与反叛成功之间的关系并不确定,因此并不存在简单的正向促进关系。At present,the regime construction of rebel governance has come under the spotlight of civil war studies.The rebel governance regime is a system of corresponding institutions and rules for armed rebel groups to manage the area and people under their control.By taking the insurgent success as the analytical object and assessing systematically the impact exerted by rebel governance construction on gaining advantages in the course of civil war,this paper argues that insurgent success of armed rebel groups is not directly determined by the rebel governance regime but depends more on the effects produced by the regime within and beyond those armed rebel groups.In the internal dimension,the rebel governance regime needs to achieve good governance;in the external dimension,the rebel governance regime needs an enabling international strategic environment that can be shaped by the regime itself.Since the rebel governance regime does not ensure the corresponding effect in terms of the above-mentioned two dimensions,the relationship between it and insurgent success is highly uncertain.To test the argument,this paper adopts the model of mixed methods.In the field of quantitative research,this paper examines the relationship between the rebel governance regime and insurgent success through two different levels of databases and comes to the conclusion that there is no direct link between them.In terms of comparative case studies,the analysis of two practical cases of specific armed groups(Taliban and ISIS)reveals that the relationship between the governance regime of armed groups and insurgent success is uncertain and hence there exists no simple positive promotion relationship between them.

关 键 词：武装组织 内战 反叛治理 反叛成功 混合方法 

分 类 号：D815.5[政治法律—国际关系]