2015—2019年北京市怀柔区食源性疾病时空聚集性分析  

A spatial-temporal clustering analysis of food borne disease in Huairou District of Beijing from 2015-2019

作　　者：卢丽彬[1] 闫雪[1] 赵明星 郭浩[1] 闫乐[1] LU Li-bin;YAN Xue;ZHAO Ming-xing;GUO Hao;YAN Le(Food Hygiene Department,Huairou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing,Beijing,101400,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市怀柔区疾病预防控制中心食品卫生科,北京101400

出　　处：《职业与健康》2021年第5期611-615,共5页Occupation and Health

基　　金：北京市怀柔区卫生健康委科研项目(2019-C-001)。

摘　　要：目的了解2015—2019年北京市怀柔区食源性疾病的时空分布特征,为发病重点区域开展食源性疾病精准防控提供依据。方法以北京市怀柔区2015—2019年食源性疾病监测数据为分析对象,运用空间自相关分析和时空扫描分析研究其时空聚集性。结果 2015—2019年北京市怀柔区共报告病例2 040例,报告发病率为101.76/10万。空间自相关分析结果显示,5年期间的Moran’s I值在0.406~0.705之间,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05),提示食源性疾病发病存在空间聚集性。局部自相关分析结果显示,16个乡镇/街道食源性疾病发病局部自相关检验差异有统计学意义(P<0.05),存在4种空间聚集模式,高-高值聚集模式主要分布在城区(泉河街道和龙山街道)和城区周围乡镇,低-低值聚集模式主要分布在北部偏远山区。时空扫描分析进一步分析显示一级高发聚集地区主要集中在泉河街道、龙山街道及怀柔镇,每年高发聚集时间集中在5—10月,局部地区在短期内存在暴发可能。结论 2015—2019年北京市怀柔区食源性疾病发病存在明显的时空聚集性,高发地区为泉河街道、龙山街道及怀柔镇,5—10月为高发时间,应针对重点地区及时间加强防控。Objective To explore the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of food borne disease in Huairou District of Beijing from 2015-2019, provide the basis for the precise prevention and control of food borne disease in key areas. Methods The monitoring data of food borne disease in Huairou District of Beijing from 2015-2019 were collected as analysis object. Then the spatial autocorrelation analysis and space-time scanning were applied to study its spatial-temporal clustering. Results Totally2 040 cases of food borne disease were reported in Huairou District of Beijing from 2015-2019, with the reported incidence rate of 101.76/lakh. The spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the Moran’s I value in five years ranged from 0.406 to 0.705, and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05), suggesting that there was spatial clustering of food borne disease. The results of local autocorrelation analysis showed that there was statistically significant difference in the incidence of food borne disease in 16 townships/streets(P<0.05). There were four kinds of spatial clustering model: high-high value clustering modes were mainly distributed in urban areas(Quanhe Street and Longshan Street) and towns around the city, while low-low value clustering modes were mainly distributed in remote mountainous areas in the north. The space-time scanning showed the first high clustering areas were mainly concentrated in Quanhe Street, Longshan Street and Huairou Town. The high incidence of clustering was concentrated from May to October every year. There was a possibility of outbreak in local areas in the short time. Conclusion There is significant spatial-temporal cluster pattern for the distribution of food borne disease in Huairou District of Beijing from 2015-2019. The highincidence areas are located in Quanhe Street, Longshan Street and Huairou Town, with the gathering time from May to October.It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control in key areas of the peak period.

关 键 词：食源性疾病 空间自相关 时空聚集性 

分 类 号：R155.53[医药卫生—营养与食品卫生学]