基于加权破产博弈模型的跨境流域水资源分配研究  

Transboundary River Water Resource Allocation Based on Weighted Bankruptcy Game Model

作　　者：李芳[1,2] 吴凤平 陈柳鑫[1] 许霞 赵越[1,2] Li Fang;Wu Fengping;Chen Liuxin;Xu Xia;Zhao Yue(Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,Jiangsu,China;National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Engineering Safety,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,江苏南京211100 [2]水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《地理科学》2021年第4期728-736,共9页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(17ZDA064);江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(KYCX200510);江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重点项目(2018SJZDI048)资助。

摘　　要：基于公平合理利用视角,将多准则决策模型与破产理论相结合探讨跨境水资源分配问题。通过梳理国际水法,设计了跨境流域水资源公平合理分配的指标体系,采用投影法解决这一多准则决策问题,并依此加权调整流域国用水需求。在加权调整用水需求和考虑议价能力的基础上,基于破产博弈模型探讨跨境流域水资源分配问题,以提高分配方案的公平合理性和可接受性。最后以澜沧江-湄公河流域的水资源分配为例进行研究,得到了澜沧江-湄公河旱季的水资源分配方案,并分析了需求加权调整系数对各流域国水资源分配的影响,进一步验证了分配模型的可靠性。Based on the perspective of fair and reasonable utilization, this article combined the multi-criterion decision model and bankruptcy theory to discuss the allocation of transboundary river water resources. Through sorting out international water laws, considering the geographical location, population, substitution cost and other related factors of the basin country comprehensively, we designed the index system of fair and reasonable allocation of transboundary river water resources. The projection method is adopted to solve this multi-criterion decision-making problem, and then we obtained the weighted demand of each basin country. Based on the weighted adjustment of water demand and the consideration of bargaining power, we discussed the allocation of transboundary river water resources based on the bankruptcy game model, and we obtained the optimal allocation scheme according to the national utility function of each basin country, so as to improve the fairness,rationality and acceptability of the allocation scheme. Finally, taking the Lancang-Mekong River Basin as an example, we obtained the water resources allocation scheme of the Lancang-Mekong River Basin in the dry season, and analyzed the influence of demand weighted adjustment coefficient on the water resources allocation of each basin country, which further verifies the reliability of the allocation model. This article provides a feasible allocation model for making a fair, reasonable, and acceptable allocation scheme of transboundary river water resources, which is helpful to reduce water resource conflicts and promote water resource benefitsharing in transboundary river basins. This article provides a feasible allocation model for making a fair, reasonable, and acceptable allocation scheme of transboundary river water resources, which is helpful to reduce water resource conflicts and promote water resource benefit-sharing in transboundary river basins.

关 键 词：公平合理利用原则 跨境流域 加权需求 议价能力 破产博弈 

分 类 号：D99[政治法律—国际法学]