货币政策能够兼顾稳增长与防风险吗?——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析  

Can Monetary Policy Reconcile Sustaining Steady Growth with Preventing Risks in China?An Analysis Based on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Modeling

作　　者：董兵兵[1] 徐慧伦 谭小芬[1] DONG Bingbing;XU Huilun;TAN Xiaofen(School of Finance,Central University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学金融学院,北京100081

出　　处：《金融研究》2021年第4期19-37,共19页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金应急管理项目“汇率市场变化、跨境资本流动与金融风险防范”(项目编号:71850005);国家自然科学基金应急管理项目“中国银行业信贷整体性风险的防范与化解”(项目编号:71850008);教育部人文社科青年基金项目(项目编号:20YJC790018);教育部哲学社会科学研究后期资助重大项目“非金融企业杠杆率的分化与结构性去杠杆研究”(项目编号:18JHQ010);中央财经大学青蓝科研团队“国际资本流动管理:政策效果评估及国际协作”;中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金和中央财经大学科研创新团队支持计划资助。

摘　　要：为构建金融有效支持实体经济的体制机制,需平衡好稳增长、调结构和防风险三者间的关系。在此背景下,本文在两部门新凯恩斯主义动态随机一般均衡模型中引入异质性抵押约束,探讨货币政策如何兼顾稳增长和防风险,进而促进金融更好地服务实体经济。本文模拟结果显示:(1)降低利率和强化国企抵押约束可促进稳增长与稳杠杆。推动国企贷款利率趋于市场水平并降低非国企贷款成本,积极发挥结构性货币政策工具的作用,将增进其政策效果;(2)2008-2016年宏观杠杆率上升主要与国企抵押约束过松有关,2017年后利率对宏观杠杆率的调控增强;(3)宏观审慎政策框架下,货币政策盯住宏观杠杆率,并根据政策目标和经济背景适时调整利率与杠杆率的内生关系,能够优化货币政策效果。对于降低利率和强化国企抵押约束的政策组合,根据宏观杠杆率的变化同向调整利率水平有利于经济稳步增长和宏观杠杆率趋稳。Macro leverage growth in China has been brought under control in recent years and has therefore stabilized.At the first meeting of the Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs in April 2018,it was proposed that China should stabilize its macro leverage and quickly reduce the leverage ratio of local government and state-owned enterprises(SOEs).However,stronger financial regulation and U.S.-China trade tensions imposed adverse shocks on the economy’s driving force and on public confidence in the economy.The economy experienced increasingly downward pressure.In the face of the COVID-19 shock,the People’s Bank of China strengthened counter-cyclical adjustments to monetary policy in 2020.These stronger counter-cyclical adjustments led to a temporary rise in the macro leverage ratio.Some researchers argue that stabilizing economic growth conflicts with stabilizing the macro leverage ratio in terms of counter-cyclical monetary policy adjustments.They therefore argue that monetary policy should now aim to enhance rather than stabilize economic growth.However,monetary policy adjustment may not lead to such a conflict in terms of the economic meaning of the macro leverage ratio and structural deleveraging.In terms of improving credit allocation,when corporations with lower returns deleverage and those with higher returns leverage,resources can be redistributed to better performing corporates.Output productivity will therefore be promoted.This resource redistribution also helps to stabilize the macro leverage ratio and maintain economic growth.We have three key questions.First,can monetary policy reconcile the stabilization of the macro leverage ratio with the maintenance of economic growth?Second,how can the structural monetary policy instrument cooperate with existing monetary policy instruments to channel funds precisely?Finally,how can monetary policy facilitate these two goals under the two-pillar framework of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy?We develop a two-sector New Keynesian dynamic stoc

关 键 词：货币政策 稳增长 稳杠杆 防风险 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学] F832.4