机构论文影响力预测指标研究  

Research on Predicting the Citation Impact of Papers at an Institute Level

作　　者：施干卫[1] 吕国良 Shi Ganwei;Lyu Guoliang(Library of Zhejiang Sci-Tech University,Hangzhou,310018)

机构地区：[1]浙江理工大学图书馆,杭州310018

出　　处：《信息资源管理学报》2021年第3期132-136,F0003,共6页Journal of Information Resources Management

基　　金：浙江理工大学教育教学改革研究项目“基于互联网大数据技术的时尚教学资源平台建设探索与实践”(jgzd201810)的研究成果之一。

摘　　要：学科能否进入ESI通常用来评价某一科研机构的学科学术研究水平。为评价和预测科研机构的学科竞争力,并为科研管理部门提供决策支撑,本研究以机构产出论文的参考文献所发表期刊影响力标准化值为基础,构建了施引端变量指标RFV,并以此构建线性回归模型来预测机构层级的学科被引频次。分别用直方图、散点图和P-P图来验证正态分布和模型的有效性,利用皮尔森相关系数分析两者之间的相关性强弱。实证研究结果显示,机构的被引频次TCo与其RFVo之间存在统计学上的强相关关系,验证了该模型的可行性及优越性。Whether to enter the ESI subject index is usually used to evaluate the academic research level of a certain scientific research institution.In order to evaluate and predict the subject competitiveness of scientific research institutions,and to provide decision support for scientific research management departments,the paper proposed the leading variable index RFV based on the standardized value of the influence of the reference journals produced by the institution and builds linear Regression model to predict the citation frequency of disciplines at the institution level.The histogram,scatter plot and P-P plot were used to verify the validity of the normal distribution and the model,and the Pearson correlation coefficient was used to analyze the correlation between the two.The empirical research results show that there is a statistically strong correlation between the institution’s citation frequency TCo and its RFVo,which verifies the feasibility and superiority of the model.

关 键 词：施引端变量 被引频次 引文分析 学术评价 线性回归 皮尔森系数 学科竞争力 

分 类 号：G311[文化科学]