IMERG卫星降水产品实时监测黄河流域干旱效用分析  

Utility Analysis of IMERG Satellite Precipitation Product for Real-time Drought Monitoring over the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：石琳 杨春生 卫林勇 江善虎[3] SHI Lin;YANG Chun-sheng;WEI Lin-yong;JIANG Shan-hu(Henan Water&Power Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450016,China;Beijing Cioldenwater Information Technology Co.,LTD.,Beijing 100053,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]河南省水利勘测设计研究有限公司,河南郑州450016 [2]北京金水信息技术发展有限公司,北京100053 [3]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2021年第6期9-11,24,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51979069);“十三五”国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0601504);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(B200204029)。

摘　　要：基于黄河流域2000年6月至2017年12月的地面栅格CPAP数据,选择多时间尺度的标准化降水指数(SPI),运用统计指标评估IMERG Early Run V6降水产品在流域实时干旱监测的性能。结果表明,IMERG能较准确地捕捉黄河流域的降水量空间变化,相关系数高于0.8的区域占流域面积的73%,相对偏差绝对值低于25%的区域占54%;尤其在湿润地区表现出较好的稳定性和可靠性。IMERG、CPAP数据计算的SPI在中下游大部分地区相关性较好(C_(C)>0.6)、命中率较高(0.5<P_(OD)<0.8)、虚警率较低(F_(AR)<0.5),而在黄河源区空间异质性较高;另外,随着时间尺度的增加,IMERG计算的SPI指数的适用性显著提高。IMERG实时监测干旱的方案明显高估了干旱特征,而在河套平原的效果相对较好,因此该方案适合黄河流域部分区域,但整体存在一定偏差,需谨慎使用。Based on the ground grid CPAP(China monthly precipitation analysis product)data from June 2000 to December 2017,the standardized precipitation index(SPI)with multiple timescales and statistical indicators were used to evaluate the performance of IMERG Early Run V6 precipitation product in real-time drought monitoring over the Yellow River Basin.The results show that the IMERG can accurately capture the spatial variation of precipitation in the Yellow River Basin,73%regions with correlation coefficient is over 0.8,and 54%regions with absolute value of relative bias is low 25%,especially in humid regions with relatively good stability and reliability.There is good correlation(C_(C)>0.6),high probability of detection(0.5<P_(OD)<0.8),low false alarm rate(F_(AR)<0.5)between the IMERG-based and the CPAP-based SPI,while high spatial heterogeneity in the Yellow River source region.In addition,with the timescale increasing,the applicability of IMERG-based SPI is significantly improved.Although the scheme of IMERG real-time monitoring drought obviously overestimates the drought characteristics,its effect is relatively good in Hetao Plain.Therefore,the scheme is suitable for some regions of the Yellow River Basin,but there is a certain deviation in the whole,which suggests that it need be cautious of using.

关 键 词：IMERG 干旱 标准化降水指数 实时 黄河流域 

分 类 号：TV62[水利工程—水利水电工程] TV882.1