元江流域梯级水电开发及气候变化对径流量和水生态环境的影响  

The Effects of Climate Change and Cascade Hydropower Development on River Runoff and Water Ecological Environment

作　　者：古作良 任尚万 高焰[3] GU Zuo-liang;REN Shang-wan;GAO Yan(Yalong River Basin Hydropower Development Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 610051,China;School of Architectural Engineering,Inner Mongolia University of Technology,Hohhot 010010,China;Economics and Management of Sichuan Normal University,Chengdu 610066,China)

机构地区：[1]雅砻江流域水电开发有限公司,四川成都610051 [2]内蒙古工业大学建筑工程学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010010 [3]四川师范大学经济与管理学院,四川成都610066

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2021年第6期20-24,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：内蒙古自然科学研究项目(NJZY334)。

摘　　要：元江作为我国西南地区水力发电重要开发流域,截至2030年将拟建11个梯级水坝,这可能会大幅改变元江的径流状况;该流域受全球变暖的影响较大,影响降雨量、温度和水流条件等,进而对水域中的生物群落造成影响,这将进一步扩大已存在的生态风险。采用基于CMIP5GCM预测方法的土壤-水评估模型(SWAT)模拟和预测了梯级水电开发、气候变化及二者同时出现等多种场景下河流径流的变化情况。采用PHABSIM模型对河流水文条件与鱼类栖息地生态质量之间的关系进行量化,并使用相对变化率评估了梯级水电开发、气候变化及二者耦合作用对水生态环境的影响。Yuanjiang is an important development basin for hydroelectric power generation in southwest China.By2030,a total of 11 cascade dams will be built in the Yuanjiang basin,which may greatly change the runoff situation of Yuanjiang.In addition,the basin is greatly affected by global warming,which will affect the biological communities in the water area by affecting rainfall,temperature and water flow conditions,and it will further expand the existing ecological risks.This paper uses the soil-water assessment model(SWAT)based on the CMIP5 GCM prediction method to simulate and predict the changes in river runoff in various scenarios such as cascade hydropower development,climate change,and the simultaneous occurrence of both cases.The PHABSIM model is used to quantify the relationship between river hydrological conditions and the ecological quality of fish habitats,and the relative change rate is used to evaluate the impact of cascade hydropower development,climate change,and the coupling of the two on the water ecological environment.

关 键 词：梯级水电开发 气候变化 BCSD缩尺 SWAT水文模拟 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]