基于Bayes-TOPSIS模型的赣州市水资源承载力综合评价  

Comprehensive Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Ganzhou City Based on Bayes-TOPSIS Model

作　　者：徐富刚 曾琴 符素嘉 雷声[2] XU Fu-gang;ZENG Qin;FU Su-jia;LEI Sheng(School of Architecture Civil Engineering,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China;Jiangxi Provincial Institute of Water Sciences,Nanchang 330029,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学建筑工程学院,江西南昌330031 [2]江西省水利科学研究院,江西南昌330029

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2021年第6期29-32,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：江西水利厅重点资助项目(KT201636);中国博士后基金(2019M652281);江西省自然科学基金青年基金(20192BAB216040)。

摘　　要：为协调水资源紧缺与赣州市深化振兴发展之间的关系,构建了包含水资源、社会、经济、生态环境四个子系统的评价体系,应用Bayes-TOPSIS模型对赣州市2010~2018年的水资源承载力状态进行评价分析。结果表明,2010~2018年赣州市水资源承载力状态在Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ三个等级之间波动;水资源承载力状态从良到差排序为2011、2018、2016、2010、2017、2012、2013、2014、2015年;影响水资源承载力的主要评价指标依次为环境污染治理投资指数、人均水资源量、产水模数、第三产业比重和城镇生活污水日处理能力;赣州市可在生态环境治理、产业结构优化、节水等方面加大工作力度以提高水资源承载力。In order to coordinate the relationship between water resources shortage and revitalization and development of Ganzhou City,this paper constructed an evaluation system of the water resources carrying capacity including four subsystems of water resources,society,economy and ecological environment.And then the Bayes-TOPSIS model was applied to evaluate the state of water resources carrying capacity of Ganzhou City from 2010 to 2018.The results show that nine-year water resource carrying capacity in Ganzhou City swang among Ⅱ,Ⅲ,Ⅳ three levels.The status of water resource carrying capacity from good to bad were ranked as 2011,2018,2016,2010,2017,2012,2013,2014,2015.The main indexes affecting the carrying capacity of water resources were environmental pollution control investment index,per capita water resources amount,water production modulus,proportion of tertiary industry,and daily treatment capacity of urban domestic sewage.Ganzhou City can be further refined in terms of environmental governance,optimization of industrial structure and water-saving measures to improve water resources carrying capacity.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 Bayes-TOPSIS模型 影响因素 赣州市 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]