基于SPI指数的粤东北地区旱涝变化特征分析  

Analysis of Drought and Flood Variation Characteristics in Northeastern Guangdong Based on SPI Index

作　　者：李思萍 李晓惠 曾思亮 廖勇培 LI Si-ping;LI Xiao-hui;ZENG Si-liang;LIAO Yong-pei(Meteorological Bureau of Heyuan,Heyuan 517000;Meteorological Bureau of Jiangmen,Jiangmen 529000;Meteorological Bureau of Zijin County,Zijin 517400)

机构地区：[1]河源市气象局,广东河源517000 [2]江门市气象局,广东江门529000 [3]紫金县气象局,广东紫金517400

出　　处：《广东气象》2021年第3期1-5,共5页Guangdong Meteorology

基　　金：河源市气象局科学技术研究项目(201910)。

摘　　要：基于近55年粤东北12个国家气象站逐月降水量资料,通过计算标准化降水指数(SPI),并利用小波分析、相关性分析等方法,探讨了粤东北旱涝的时间变化、周期变化和空间分异特征。结果表明:粤东北旱涝事件出现频率高,不同时间尺度旱涝事件出现的平均频率为58.92%。季节尺度上,夏秋季出现洪涝事件频率较春冬季高,春冬季出现干旱事件频率较夏秋季高。年代际尺度上,20世纪80年代和21世纪10年代洪涝事件出现频率最高,21世纪初干旱事件出现频率最高。粤东北旱涝周期变化存在3、5、9、20和38年5个时间尺度。粤东北各区域间有较强相关性,尤以南区、北区的相关性最显著,其旱涝空间变化有较强一致性。Based on monthly rainfall data from 12 national meteorological stations in the northeastern part of Guangdong province for the past 55 years and with the methods of wavelet analysis and correlation analysis,this work studies the temporal variation,periodic variation and spatial distribution anomalies of droughts and floods in this region by computing a standardized precipitation index(SPI).The result is shown as follows.The events of droughts and floods occur frequently in this part of the province,with an average of 58.92%for all temporal scales.On the seasonal scale,flood events take place more frequently in summer and autumn than in spring and winter while drought events happen more frequently in spring and winter than in summer and autumn.On the interdecadal scale,flood events occur most frequently in the 1980 s and 2010 s while drought events occur most frequently in the 2000 s.There are five temporal scales for periodic variation of droughts and floods in northeastern Guangdong,which are 3,5,9,20 and 38 years,respectively.Different parts of the northeastern Guangdong are highly correlated,mostly so between the south and north part where spatial correlation is highly consistent.

关 键 词：气候学 旱涝 标准化降水指数 粤东北 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]