RCEP视角下自由贸易区战略的贸易效应——基于长三角地区的实证分析  

A Study on the Trade Effect of FTA Strategy from the Perspective of RCEP:An Empirical Analysis based on the Yangtze River Delta Region

作　　者：韩剑[1] 郑航 HAN Jian;ZHENG Hang(Yangtze River Delta Economic and Social Development Research Center,School of Economics,Nanjing University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210093,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心/商学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《苏州大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2021年第3期96-110,共15页Journal of Soochow University(Philosophy & Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“构建面向全球的高标准自由贸易区网络与治理规则研究”(项目编号:20ZDA100);国家自然科学基金面上项目“企业异质性、固定成本约束与优惠自贸协定利用:基于FTA利用率的研究”(项目编号:71773048);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(项目编号:010414370112)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：长三角作为我国对外开放的重要窗口,在我国与RCEP贸易往来中占有举足轻重的地位。选取长三角与RCEP伙伴国的贸易数据为样本,在研究已生效FTA战略对长三角的区域内贸易影响基础之上,使用回归系数法,估计RCEP生效给长三角带来的贸易增量和增幅。结果表明:缔结FTA对长三角在RCEP区域内的贸易产生显著的促进作用,并且FTA文本包含的高水平条款越多,越有利于扩大长三角地区在RCEP区域内的进出口贸易。通过反事实模拟,可以发现RCEP生效产生的贸易增量和增幅较多来自日本和东盟,江苏是最大的受益地区,机械器具是最大的受益行业,并且进口贸易所受影响大于出口贸易。因此,长三角需要因地制宜,加快构建中日韩产业园,通过经济技术合作提高企业创新能力,推动长三角区域一体化建设,在RCEP国际市场中促进经济高质量发展。As an important platform for China’s opening up to the outside world,the Yangtze River Delta occupies a significant position in China’s trade with RCEP.This paper uses trade data between the Yangtze River Delta and RCEP partner countries as a sample,and uses the regression coefficient method to estimate the incremental trade and increase in trade brought about by the entry into force of the RCEP to the Yangtze River Delta,based on the study of the impact of the effective FTA strategy on the intra-regional trade of the Yangtze River Delta.The results show that the conclusion of FTA plays a significant role in promoting Yangtze River Delta’s regional trade,and that the more high-level provisions the FTA text contains,the more beneficial it is to expand the import and export trade of the Yangtze River Delta within the RCEP region.Through trade simulation,it is further found that the effect of RCEP on import trade of Yangtze River Delta the growth mainly comes from Japan and ASEAN;also,Jiangsu is the biggest beneficiary region,machinery is the biggest beneficiary industry,and the effect is greater than that on export trade,and.Therefore,the Yangtze River Delta needs to adapt to local conditions,accelerate the construction of China-Japan-Korea industrial parks,improve the innovation capacity of enterprises through economic and technological cooperation,promote the construction of regional integration in the Yangtze River Delta,and promote high-quality economic development in the RCEP international market.

关 键 词：长三角 RCEP FTA文本 贸易模拟 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易] F127[经济管理—产业经济]