区域经济一体化对中国制造业的影响——基于RCEP的模拟分析  

The Impact of Regional Economic Integration on China Manufacturing:Based on the Simulation Analysis of RCEP

作　　者：陆菁[1] 高宇峰 王韬璇 LU Jing;GAO Yu-feng;WANG Tao-xuan(School of Economics,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310027,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学经济学院,浙江杭州310027

出　　处：《苏州大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2021年第3期124-135,共12页Journal of Soochow University(Philosophy & Social Science Edition)

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“中国特色自由贸易港建设理论与方法研究”(项目编号:20JZD016);国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国数字贸易的就业创造和就业消失效应:机理与实证”(项目编号:71973125);研究阐释党的十九届四中全会精神国家社科基金重点项目“加快中国特色自由贸易港建设的制度创新及风险防控体系研究”(项目编号:20AZD051)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：《区域全面伙伴关系协定》的签署和即将生效将对中国及相关国家、东亚地区经贸合作和区域产业链重构产生深远的影响。基于GTAP10.0模型对RCEP实施的经济效应和细分行业制造业影响的程度进行了模拟分析,研究发现由于区域贸易壁垒的降低我国绝大部分制造业产业出口将显著增加,由于区域内竞争加剧,我国部分制造业企业国内增加值产生轻微负面冲击。为此我国应实施优势产业“东亚链主”战略,引领区域内产业链重构,各自贸试验区应率先实施“双自联动”战略,助推中日韩产业链小循环,加速“抢滩”RCEP成员国跨境电商市场,有效发挥RCEP的实施对建设高水平开放型经济的促进作用。The signing and imminent entry into force of the Regional Comprehensive Partnership Agreement(RCPA)will have a far-reaching impact on economic and trade cooperation and the restructuring of the regional industrial chain in East Asia,China and other relevant countries.This paper uses the GTAP 10.0 model to simulate the economic effect of RCEP and the degree of influence of manufacturing industries,the study found that due to the regional trade barriers to reduce exports will be increased significantly,due to the intensification of regional competition,the domestic added value of some manufacturing enterprises in China has a slight negative impact.Therefore China should implement the strategy of leading east Asia chain advantage industry,to lead the regional industrial restructuring,the FTZs should take the first to implement“Double Self-linkage”strategy,boost the China-Japanese and Korean industry chain small cycle,speed up the“exploitation”of cross-border e-commerce markets of RCEP member countries,effective play to the implementation of the RCEP to build a high level of the open economy.

关 键 词：RCEP 国际区域经济一体化 区域产业链重构 GTAP 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易]