基于GM(1,1)模型的沈阳市机动车保有量测算  

Measurement and Calculation of Motor Vehicle Ownership in Shenyang based on GM(1,1)Model

作　　者：俞嘉馨 柴昱名 荣婉婧 靖楠楠 Yu Jiaxin;Chai Yuming;Rong Wanjing;Jing Nannan

机构地区：[1]沈阳工业大学经济学院,辽宁省沈阳市110870

出　　处：《时代汽车》2021年第11期20-21,共2页Auto Time

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅研究课题:异质性FDI、产业集聚对辽宁不同行业效率影响(WJGD2019002);辽宁省科学事业公益研究基金(软科学计划项目):基于对外开放的科技创新与辽宁经济高质量发展耦合机理和路径研究,项目号:2020JH4/10100010系列成果之一。

摘　　要：随着社会经济化和城市化进程的不断加快,城市交通问题日益突出,城市机动车保有量急剧增加,产生诸如道路拥堵、大气环境污染等一系列交通问题。本文首先利用多元回归模型测算应用机动车保有量的因素,然后利用GM(1,1)模型预测影响沈阳机动车保有量未来5年的数值,并通过逐步回归分析预测沈阳市2016-2020年的机动车保有量。With the continuous acceleration of social economization and urbanization,urban traffic problems have become increasingly prominent,and the number of urban motor vehicles has increased sharply,resulting in a series of traffic problems such as road congestion and atmospheric pollution.This paper first uses the multiple regression model to measure the factors that affect the number of motor vehicles in Shenyang,and then uses the GM(1,1)model to predict the value of the number of vehicles in Shenyang in the next 5 years,and predicts the 2016-2020 motor vehicle ownership of Shenyang through stepwise regression analysis.

关 键 词：机动车保有量 交通环境承载力 交通环境污染承载力 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]