气候变化影响下高山区泥石流形成机制研究及展望  

Research and prospect on formation mechanism of debris flows in high mountains under the influence of climate change

作　　者：鲁建莹 余国安[1] 黄河清[1] LU Jianying;YU Guo’an;HUANG Heqing(Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环与地表过程重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2021年第2期555-567,共13页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1505201);国家自然科学基金项目(41971010)资助。

摘　　要：全球范围内高海拔或高纬度山区(以下简称高山区),尤其高山冰川冻土急剧消退地区,广泛发育泥石流灾害。在全球气候变暖的大背景下,高山区泥石流的现实危害和潜在风险日渐凸显。与其他环境条件下泥石流过程主要由降雨激发不同,高山区泥石流的暴发多受降雨和温度条件的共同影响,其形成机制更为复杂,预测预警十分困难,因此加强高山区泥石流研究具有重要的科学价值和实践意义。通过述评近期高山区泥石流起动研究的主要进展,包括泥石流暴发与气象条件的关系,典型高山区泥石流事件成因,冰川冻土体消融破坏机制,以及冰碛土泥石流起动特征,认为未来高山区泥石流研究应加强高时空分辨率气象数据获取和物源动态变化分析研判,并从动力学机制层面进一步明晰高山区泥石流起动条件和发育过程。Debris flow disasters are widely distributed in high-elevation or high-latitude mountain areas(referred to as debris flow in high mountains,DFHM),especially in areas where mountain glaciers and permafrost have receded rapidly. In the context of global climate change(temperature rising and higher possibility of occurrence of strong precipitation events),the actual hazards and potential risks of DFHM have drawn increasing attention.Unlike debris flows developing in low elevation environments which are mainly triggered by precipitation,the outbreak of DFHM is also significantly affected by temperature conditions,making its formation mechanism more complicated. Although a lot of research has been carried out on DFHM at home and abroad,effective prediction and early warning and prevention and control are still very difficult. It is of great scientific value and practical significance to further strengthen the starting conditions and mechanisms of glacial debris flow. This review summarizes the recent progress on initiation study of glacial debris flow,including:the relationship between glacial debris flow outbreak and meteorological conditions,causes of typical DFHM outbreaks,failure mechanisms and models of glacier(rock,or moraine deposits),and characteristics of moraine initiation. In the future,we should strengthen the acquisition of high spatial-temporal resolution meteorological data and the analysis and judgment of dynamic changes of material sources,and further clarify the formation conditions and development process of debris flow in alpine areas from the perspective of dynamic mechanism.

关 键 词：高山区泥石流 暴发成因 失稳机制 起动特征 水热条件 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学] X43[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]