2013—2019年镇江市丹徒区居民死因定量分析  

Quantitative analysis of death causes of residents in Dantu district from 2013 to 2019

作　　者：韩晔 神学慧 李志伟 古孝勇[2] 仝海员[3] HAN Ye;SHEN Xue-hui;LI Zhi-wei;GU Xiao-yong;TONG Hai-yuan(Dantu District Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,Jiangsu Zhenjiang212028,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]镇江市丹徒区疾病预防控制中心,江苏镇江212028 [2]镇江市疾病预防控制中心 [3]扬中市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《江苏预防医学》2021年第3期278-282,共5页Jiangsu Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：江苏省卫生计生委医学科研课题(H2017018)。

摘　　要：目的了解镇江市丹徒区居民死亡情况,为政府制定防控措施提供依据。方法应用死亡率、标化死亡率、死因顺位、期望寿命、去死因期望寿命、早死概率、死亡率差别分解等定性定量指标,对居民死亡资料进行分析。结果2013—2019年丹徒区居民平均粗死亡率为802.56/10万,呈上升趋势(APC=1.59%,t=2.67,P=0.044),标化死亡率为426.56/10万,呈下降趋势(APC=5.24%,t=4.06,P=0.010)。死因顺位前5位为恶性肿瘤(占35.51%)、循环系统疾病(占34.22%)、呼吸系统疾病(占9.32%)、内分泌营养代谢疾病(占6.16%)和损伤中毒(占6.13%)。期望寿命由2013年77.61岁上升至2019年81.72岁。恶性肿瘤、循环系统疾病、慢阻肺标化死亡率均呈下降趋势(P值均<0.05),糖尿病死亡率呈上升趋势(P<0.05)。死亡率差别分解显示,促进该四类重大慢性病死亡率的升高的人口因素大于阻碍死亡率的升高的非人口因素。四类重大慢性病早死概率呈下降趋势(P<0.05),预测丹徒区居民2030年四类重大慢性病早死概率为4.70%,能够达到"健康中国2030"早死概率8.97%的目标值。结论人口老龄化是丹徒区居民死亡率上升的主要原因,四类重大慢性病对丹徒区居民期望寿命、早死概率影响较大,需重点防控。Objective To understand the death situation of residents in Dantu district of Zhenjiang city;to provide evidence for the government to formulate relevant prevention and control measures.Methods The qualitative and quantitative indexes such as mortality rate,standardized mortality rate,order of causes of death,life expectancy,life expectancy without causes of death,probability of premature death and differential decomposition of death were used to analyze death data of residents in Dantu district.Results From 2013 to 2019,the crude mortality rate of residents in Dantu district was 802.56/105,showing an upward trend(APC=1.59%,t=2.67,P=0.044),and the standardized mortality rate was 426.56/105,showing a downward trend(APC=-5.24%,t=-4.06,P=0.010).The top 5 causes of death were malignant tumor(accounted for 35.51%),circulatory system disease(accounted for 34.22%),respiratory system disease(accounted for 9.32%),endocrine nutrition metabolic disease(accounted for 6.16%),injure and poisoning(accounted for 6.13%).From 2013 to 2019,the life expectancy increased from 77.61 years to 81.72 years.The standardized mortality rates of malignant tumor,circulatory system disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease showed downward trends(all P<0.05),while the mortality rate of diabetes showed an upward trend(all P<0.05).The differential decomposition of death analysis showed that the demographic factors promoting the increase of mortality rates of 4 major chronic diseases were greater than the non-demographic factors that hindering the increase of mortality rates.The premature death probability of 4 major chronic diseases showed downward trends(all P<0.05).The predicted premature death rate of 4 major chronic diseases would be 4.70%in 2030,which could satisfy the Healthy China2030 goal of 8.97%.Conclusion In Dantu district,aging is the main factor for the increase of death rate of residents,4 major chronic diseases have a great impact on the life expectancy and premature death rates of residents,which demand more prevention and

关 键 词：死亡率 期望寿命 早死概率 差别分解 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]