基于耦合FLUS-InVEST模型的广州市生态系统碳储量时空演变与预测  

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Prediction of Ecosystem Carbon Stocks in Guangzhou City by Coupling FLUS-InVEST Models

作　　者：朱志强 马晓双 胡洪[1] Zhu Zhiqiang;Ma Xiaoshuang;Hu Hong(School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Anhui University, Hefei, Anhui 230601, China)

机构地区：[1]安徽大学资源与环境工程学院,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2021年第2期222-229,239,共9页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“顾及多类观测值特征的北斗定位随机模型研究”(41704036)。

摘　　要：[目的]探讨城市建设用地扩张下土地利用变化对碳储量的影响,揭示碳储量时空演变和未来空间分布趋势,为城市规划和生态脆弱区实施精准保护提供科学参考。[方法]本文通过耦合FLUS-InVEST模型,基于解译的土地利用数据和未来土地预测,反演1990—2018年广州市土地和碳储量时空变化特征,分析建设用地扩张与碳储量分布规律,并评估未来碳储量潜力。[结果]广州市土地类型变化特征表现为建设用地的迅速扩张,主要侵占耕地和林地;1990—2018年碳储量减少2.47×106 t,其中2000—2005年降幅最大;高密度碳储量主要分布在北部森林一带,低密度碳储量主要分布在珠江下游;建设用地和低密度碳储量的重心迁移具有高度的一致性;预测2018—2034年碳储量下降1.20×106 t。[结论]广州市建设用地扩张对碳储量影响显著,未来西北和东部部分区域碳储量流失风险较大。[Objective]The impact of land use change on carbon stocks under the expansion of urban construction land was explored,and the spatio-temporal evolution and future spatial distribution trend of carbon storage were revealed,in order to provide scientific basis for urban planning and the precise protection of ecologically fragile areas.[Methods]By coupling FLUS-InVEST models,this study simulated the spatial and temporal evolution of variation characteristics of land and carbon stocks in Guangzhou City from 1990 to 2018 based on the interpreted land use data and future land prediction,so as to analyze the impact of construction land expansion on carbon stocks distribution and evaluate the potential carbon stocks in the future.[Results]The land use change in Guangzhou City was characterized by the rapid expansion of construction land,mainly occupying arable land and forestland.The carbon stocks decreased by 2.47×10^(6) t from 1990 to 2018,with the largest decline from 2000 to 2005.High density carbon stocks were mainly distributed in the northern forest area,while low density carbon stocks were mainly distributed in the lower reaches of the Pearl River.The transfer of gravity center of construction land and low density carbon stocks had a high consistency.It was predicted that carbon stocks would decline by 1.20×10^(6) t between 2018 and 2034.[Conclusion]The expansion of construction land in Guangzhou City has significant impact on carbon stocks,and there is a greater risk of loss of carbon stocks in areas of the northwest and east in the future.

关 键 词：土地利用 FLUS-InVEST模型 碳储量 时空演变 广州市 

分 类 号：X87[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]