基于长短时记忆网络的航线市场份额预测  

Forecast of Air Routes Market Share Based on Long Short-Term Memory Network

作　　者：邓秦 段鹏 邱文辉 DENG Qin;DUAN Peng;QIU Wenhui(Hangzhou Pi-Solution Information Technology Company Limited,Hangzhou 311121,China;China Southern Airlines Company Limited,Guangzhou 510406,China)

机构地区：[1]杭州派迩信息技术有限公司,杭州311121 [2]中国南方航空公司,广州510406

出　　处：《上海工程技术大学学报》2021年第1期61-66,74,共7页Journal of Shanghai University of Engineering Science

基　　金：浙江省科技发展专项资金资助项目(2018R02008)。

摘　　要：当前主流航线市场的份额预测方法是服务质量指数(QSI)模型,但此方法需要模型线性化和大量人工经验.提出基于长短时记忆网络的航线市场份额预测模型,利用该模型对航班市场份额进行预测,并通过在简化数据集上进行试验来验证模型的有效性.以均方根误差为评价指标,对模型的参数进行优化,分别测试运力预测,QSI模型和提出的预测模型等3种方法的预测精度.试验结果表明提出的模型能更好地预测航线市场份额,均方根误差在0.1左右.The mainstream forecast method of air route market share is quality of service index(QSI)model currently,but this method needs model linearization and a lot of manual experience.An airline market share forecasting model based on long short-term memory network was proposed.The model was used to forecast the flight market share,and the validity of the model was verified by experiments on simplified data sets.Taking root mean square error as the evaluation index,the parameters of the model were optimized,and the prediction accuracy of the three methods,such as capacity prediction,QSI model and the proposed prediction model,was tested respectively.Experimental results show that the proposed model can better predict the market share of airlines,and the root mean square error is about 0.1.

关 键 词：航空运输 市场份额预测 服务质量指数(QSI)模型 长短时记忆网络 

分 类 号：U8[交通运输工程]