石家庄市2017-2019年气象因素与手足口病发病相关性及其滞后效应分析  

Analysis on influence and lag effects of meteorological factors on incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease in Shijiazhuang,2017-2019

作　　者：徐苗苗 苏通[2] 刘莹莹[2] 赵文娜[2] 于秋丽[2] 齐顺祥[2] 李佳霖 李琦[2] Xu Miaomiao;Su Tong;Liu Yingying;Zhao Wenna;Yu Qiuli;Qi Shunxiang;Li Jialin;Li Qi(School of Public Health,North China University of Science and Technology,Tangshan 063200,China;Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention,Hebei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shijiazhuang 050021,China)

机构地区：[1]华北理工大学公共卫生学院,唐山063200 [2]河北省疾病预防控制中心病毒病防治所,石家庄050021

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2021年第5期827-832,共6页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

基　　金：国家科技重大专项(2018ZX10713002);河北省重大医学科研资助项目(zd2013068)。

摘　　要：目的:分析石家庄市气象因素与手足口病发病相关性及其滞后效应。方法:资料来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统2017-2019年石家庄市手足口病逐日发病数据、中国气象数据网的各气象监测点地面逐小时气象数据。运用R 3.6.2软件构建分布滞后非线性模型并进行统计学分析。结果:当日均气温为15~26℃时,滞后3~6 d的手足口病发病风险增加,滞后3 d时发病风险最大(RR=1.03,95%CI:1.00~1.06)。当日均相对湿度>80%时,滞后5~18 d的手足口病发病风险增加,滞后9 d时发病风险最大(RR=1.04,95%CI:1.02~1.06)。当日均气压为999~1007 hPa时,滞后5~8 d的手足口病的发病风险增加,滞后6 d时的发病风险最大(RR=1.01,95%CI:1.00~1.02)。当日降水量为15~32 mm时,滞后3~18 d的手足口病发病风险增加,滞后6 d的发病风险最大(RR=1.11,95%CI:1.02~1.19)。结论:2017-2019年石家庄市气象因素中,日均气温较高(15~26℃)、日均相对湿度较高(>80%)、日均气压较低(999~1007 hPa)和日降水量较高(15~32 mm)都会增加手足口病的发病风险,均与手足口病发病存在相关性,并有一定的滞后性,可作为手足口病疫情预警的参数。Objective To understand the influence and lag effect of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)in Shijiazhuang.Methods The daily incidence data of HFMD in Shijiazhuang during 2017-2019 were collected from Chinese Information System for Disease Control and Prevention.The hourly meteorological data were collected form meteorological stations of Shijiazhuang of Chinese meteorological data network.The distributed lag nonlinear model was built for statistical analysis by software R 3.6.2.Results When the daily average temperature was 15-26℃,the risk of incidence of HFMD increased at lag 3-6 days.However,the risk was highest when the temperature was 25℃at lag 3 days(RR=1.03,95%CI:1.00-1.06).When the daily average relative humidity was more than 80%,the risk of incidence of HFMD increased at lag 5-18 days.However,the risk was highest at lag 9 days(RR=1.04,95%CI:1.02-1.06).When the daily average air pressure ranged from 999 hPa to 1007 hPa,the risk of incidence of HFMD increased at lag 5-8 days.However,the risk was highest at lag 6 days(RR=1.01,95%CI:1.00-1.02).When the daily average precipitation ranged from 15 to 32 mm,the risk of incidence of HFMD increased at lag 3-18 days.However,the risk was highest at lag 6 days(RR=1.11,95%CI:1.02-1.19).Conclusions Meteorological factors increased the risk of incidence of HFMD such as higher daily average temperature(15-26℃),higher daily average humidity(>80%),lower daily average air pressure(999-1007 hPa)and higher daily average precipitation(15-32 mm)in Shijiazhuang during 2017-2019.They were all correlated with the incidence of HFMD with certain lag days.It is suggested to use these meteorological indicators for the early warning of HFMD.

关 键 词：手足口病 气象因素 分布滞后非线性模型 

分 类 号：R725.1[医药卫生—儿科]