传染病暴发或流行的探测、监测和预警  

Roles of detection,surveillance and early warning on outbreaks or epidemics of infectious diseases

作　　者：王树坤 赵世文[1] 伏晓庆[1] 孟银平 张勇[1] 罗春蕊[1] 周永明[1] 宋志忠[1] Wang Shukun;Zhao Shiwen;Fu Xiaoqing;Meng Yinping;Zhang Yong;Luo Chunrui;Zhou Yongming;Song Zhizhong(Acute Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Institute,Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Kunming 650022,China;School of Public Health,Dali University,Dali 671000,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省疾病预防控制中心急性传染病防制所,昆明650022 [2]大理大学公共卫生学院,大理671000

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2021年第5期941-947,共7页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

基　　金：国家科技重大专项(2017ZX10103010,2012ZX10004201)。

摘　　要：传染病继续成为全球发病死亡主要原因之一,影响公众健康生命、社会经济发展甚至国家安全。早期探测重点是及时、敏感地发现传染病暴发流行异常信息,并进行现场调查和核实,也是有效监测、预警系统的前期;有效监测、预警系统能够全面准确地认识特定传染病暴发流行可能发生的事实条件、驱动因素和传播链,并提出科学有效预防控制策略措施;因衡量收集具体数据的资源支撑和价值大小,难以及时、完整、准确地获得流行病学、病原学等数据信息。本文综述传染病早期探测、有效监测、有效预警理论技术,整合利用中国有效传染病监测预警体系和多时空节点触发与多学科渠道监测暴发流行情况、病因、风险、过程和驱动因素的多源数据,构建运行敏感特异、分期度量的中国(急性)传染病监测、预警和响应创新技术体系,为加强新发重大传染病和传染病突发公共卫生事件监测预警、避免应对不力传染病蔓延与防止过度响应资源浪费提供依据。Infectious diseases are still one of the leading causes of morbidity and death globally,affecting public health and life,social and economic development,and even national security.Early detection focuses on detecting the abnormal information of infectious disease outbreaks or epidemics in a timely and sensitive way to conduct field investigation and verification.It is also a precursor to effective surveillance and early warning system.The effective surveillance and early warning system can fully and accurately understand the real conditions,driving forces,and transmission chain of the occurrence of a specific infectious disease outbreak and epidemic and put forward scientific and effective prevention and control strategies and measures.Due to the measurement of the resources support and the particular data collection value,it is not easy to obtain epidemiological,etiological,and other data information in a timely,complete and accurate manner.This paper summarized the theory and technology on early detection,effective surveillance,and early warning information on infectious diseases.It also integrated and utilized the multi-source data,including effective infectious disease surveillance and the country's early warning system,to better understand the outbreak epidemic,causes,risks,processes,and driving forces.Thus,it is possible to set up a sensitive,specific staging measurement innovative technical system to monitor,early warning,and timely respond to acute infectious diseases through multidisciplinary cooperation in China.It provides the basis for strengthening the surveillance and early warning of new emerging and major infectious diseases and public health emergencies,avoiding the spread of inadequate response to infectious disease,and preventing the resources waste of over-response.

关 键 词：传染病 早期探测 监测系统 预警系统 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学]