基于POT模型的航班偏差阈值确定  

Selection of Deviation Threshold Based on POT Model

作　　者：王世锦[1] 林荆荆 李家豪 储洁雯 WANG Shi-jin;LIN Jing-jing;LI Jia-hao;CHU Jie-wen(Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 210000,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学,江苏南京210000

出　　处：《航空计算技术》2021年第3期50-54,共5页Aeronautical Computing Technique

摘　　要：判断航班在正常情况下是否偏离飞行计划,对航班偏航预测、管制运行管理等具有重要意义。通过选取偏航阈值确定航班在正常情况下是否偏离飞行计划,将每个历史航班分为多个航迹段对应其飞行计划航段,以历史航迹段偏离飞行计划路径距离数据为基础,基于极值理论中的POT模型中超额均值法、Hill图法和峰度法分别对偏航阈值进行选取,将高于偏航阈值的数据拟合成广义帕累托分布,并通过拟合判断图进行检验确定偏航阈值的合理性。选取2018年10月华东和中南地区良好天气情况下1 910个历史航班,24 543条航迹段作为样本进行偏航阈值确定,并与以往选取阈值的百分位数方法进行对比,在实际意义上对两者进行分析,最终确定航班在正常情况下偏航阈值为13 km。It is of fundamental significance to determine whether a flight is deviated from flight plan path under normal conditions for flight deviation prediction,air traffic management,and so on.In this paper,deviation threshold is selected to determine whether the flight deviates its flight plan path.Each historical flight is divided into multiple trajectory segments corresponding to flight plan segment,the distances between trajectory segments and flight plan segments are selected as the base data to determine the deviation threshold based on mean excess function method,hill method and kurtosis method in the POT model of extreme value theory,and then the distance data which is higher the deviation threshold is fitted for Generalized Pareto distribution,and finally verify the rationality of deviation threshold by fitting judgment graphs.In this paper,1910 historical flights containing 24543 trajectory segments in Eastern and Central Southern China in October 2018 were selected as samples to determine the deviation threshold,and compared with the previous percentiles threshold selection method,the two are analyzed practically,finally the deviation threshold under normal conditions is determined to be 13 km.

关 键 词：空中交通管理 偏航 POT模型 阈值选取方法 

分 类 号：V355[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]