文明的冲突与世界秩序的未来--重读亨廷顿《文明的冲突》  

The Clash of Civilizations and the Future ofthe World Order:Revisiting Huntington’s The Clash of Civilizations

作　　者：李强[1] Li Qiang(School of Government,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学政府管理学院,北京100871

出　　处：《北京大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2021年第3期140-152,共13页Journal of Peking University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

摘　　要：亨廷顿于1993年发表“文明的冲突”,声称冷战结束标志着世界政治从以意识形态冲突为特征的两大阵营的对抗转变为不同文明之间的冲突。时隔近三十年后重新审视亨廷顿的理论,应该说这一理论作为分析性框架仍具有启迪意义,但不同文明的内在变化与力量消长已经超越了他所展示的文明冲突格局。与三十年前相比,世界范围内伊斯兰教强劲复兴,伊斯兰主义兴起并产生广泛影响;“新欧亚主义”为俄罗斯提供了认同的基础,使其逐渐摆脱了亨廷顿所谓“无所适从国家”的状态,重新成为一个具有强大凝聚力和远大抱负的国家;西方在经济、军事、科技领域仍居于世界主导地位,但由于认同政治的深刻影响,内部社会矛盾激化,对外政策呈现出内敛化态势。中美之间的矛盾比亨廷顿时期更加激化,但冲突的本质并非文明的冲突,而是利益或意识形态冲突。文明冲突的框架不可能解释世界政治的所有现象。不同国家或群体之间的利益冲突和意识形态冲突都会影响世界政治的走向,但从长时段来看,文明之间的冲突或融合会对国际秩序产生持续的影响。Samuel P. Huntington’s The Clash of Civilizations published in 1993 claims that the dominant source of conflict will shift from the clash of ideologies between the two camps during the Cold War period to the clash of different civilizations after the Cold War. When this theory is reevaluated three decades later, it can be said that Huntington’s theory as an analytical framework is still of enlightening significance. Nevertheless, the rise and fall of different civilizations have shifted the balance between them and transcended the patterns of the clash of civilizations demonstrated by Huntington. In comparison with the situation 30 years ago, there have been strong revival of Islam with the worldwide rise and spread of Islamism. The revival of Eurasianism in Russia has provided a new foundation for Russian identity, allowing it to break away from what Huntington calls a "torn country" and to once more become a country with strong cohesive identity and great ambition. The West is still the dominant force in economy, military, science and technology. Nevertheless, the growth of identity politics has created deep social divisions among Western societies, which are leading to an increasingly introversive tendency in their foreign policies. The contradictions between China and America have now become much more intensified than those in Huntington’s time. In nature, their conflict is a conflict of interests or ideologies, rather than one of civilizations. The framework of the clash of civilizations is unable to explain all the phenomena in world politics. But the conflicts of interests and ideologies between different countries and groups may produce influences upon the orientation of world politics. Nevertheless, the clash or integration between civilizations may make its enduring impact on world politics in the long run.

关 键 词：文明冲突 伊斯兰主义 欧亚主义 认同政治 儒教文明 

分 类 号：G04[文化科学]