“十四五”期间我国潜在产出和增长动力的测算研究  

Research on China’s Potential Output and Growth Drivers During the"14th Five-Year Plan"Period

作　　者：中国人民银行调查统计司课题组 阮健弘 Research Group of the Survey and Statistics Department of the People’s Bank of China

机构地区：[1]北京100800 [2]不详

出　　处：《西南金融》2021年第6期3-14,共12页Southwest Finance

摘　　要：随着劳动力质量和技术进步等要素对经济增长的重要性不断凸显,有必要对我国经济增长的拉动因素进行全方位测算。本文基于多元滤波法等方法,将固定资本分解为通讯信息类固定资本和其他资本,并将劳动力对经济的拉动分解为数量、质量和知识创新三部分,对我国潜在产出和增长动力进行整体和分行业测算。结果表明:技术进步(包括通讯信息类固定资本和知识创新)对经济增长拉动呈持续上升态势,劳动力数量对经济的拉动作用逐渐弱化,同时制造业、信息技术服务业、科学研究技术服务业的全要素生产率增长较快。此外,本文通过生产函数法测算出"十四五"期间我国潜在产出增速在5%~5.7%,总体继续保持中高速增长,最后根据研究结果提出相关政策建议。With the increasing importance of factors such as labor quality and technological progress to economic growth,it is necessary to conduct a comprehensive calculation of the driving factors of China’s economic growth.Based on the multivariate filtering method,this paper decomposes fixed capital into communication and information fixed capital and other capital,and decomposes the pull of labor to the economy into three parts:quantity,quality,and knowledge innovation,and conducts overall and sub-industry calculations on potential growth and growth drivers.The results show that technological progress(including fixed capital of communication and information and knowledge innovation)has continued to increase the driving force of economic growth,and the role of labor force in driving the economy has gradually weakened.Meanwhile,the total factor productivity of manufacturing,information technology service industry,and scientific research technology service industry has grown rapidly.In addition,this paper uses the production function method to calculate that China’s potential output growth rate during the"14th Five-Year Plan"period is between 5%and 5.7%.Overall,it continues to maintain a medium-tohigh-speed growth,and this paper finally puts forward relevant policy recommendations based on the research results.

关 键 词：“十四五”规划 潜在产出 增长动力 全要素生产率 知识创新 固定资本 通讯信息 技术进步 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]