2020年7月7-10日江西连续性大暴雨过程成因分析  

Analysis of the Cause of the Continuous Heavy Rain in Jiangxi on July 7—10,2020

作　　者：陈鲍发 黄龙飞 马中元[2] 余欣 CHEN Baofa;HUANG Longfei;MA Zhongyuan;YU Xin(Jingdezhen Meteorological Bureau,333000,Jingdezhen,Jiangxi,PRC;Jiangxi Institute of Meteorological Science,330046,Nanchang,PRC)

机构地区：[1]景德镇市气象局,江西景德镇333000 [2]江西省气象科学研究所,南昌330046

出　　处：《江西科学》2021年第3期457-463,共7页Jiangxi Science

基　　金：2017年江西省气象局面上项目“赣东北致洪暴雨的分析与研究”;2019年江西省气象局预报员专项项目“2019年7月景德镇两次低涡切变大暴雨过程对比分析”;景德镇市科技计划项目(2017NYSF002)。

摘　　要：使用常规MICAPS天气图资料、地面气象要素、NCEP再分析资料,采用统计学、天气学和中尺度分析等方法,对2020年6―7月江西大暴雨过程中7月上旬连续性大暴雨过程进行分析,结果表明:1)2020年6—7月,江西共出现12次大暴雨过程,其中7月7—10日为历史罕见的连续性大暴雨和特大暴雨过程;2)中低层有深厚的水汽饱和区,明显的辐合、急流、高层辐散、中层的干侵入、925 hPa的超低空急流、中低层位置接近的切变线、前倾槽等有利于增加降水强度,暖式切变线与静止锋式切变线的稳定维持与中层弱的风场结构;3)雨带的稳定维持且移动缓慢,高的降水效率加上长的维持时间,导致连续性大暴雨的发生;4)大暴雨的平均场上,表现为中层风速偏弱,低层有风向与风速的切变线,前倾槽、高层辐合、低层辐散、高层负涡度、中层正涡度,强对流上升运动伸展至12 km以上、充足的水汽输送和强水汽辐合、高能、高湿等结构特征。最后,提出江西大暴雨概念模型。这些均为有效预测江西大暴雨过程提供参考与依据。Using conventional MICAPS weather map data,ground meteorological elements,and NCEP reanalysis data,using statistics,synoptics,and mesoscale analysis,the continuous heavy rain in early July during the heavy rain in Jiangxi from June to July in 2020 is analyzed.The results show that:1)From June to July 2020,there were a total of 12 heavy rainstorms in Jiangxi,of which July 7-10 was a continuous heavy rainstorm and an extremely heavy rainstorm which was rare in history.2)There are deep water vapor saturation zones in the middle and low layers.Obvious convergence,jets,high-level divergence,dry intrusion in the middle layer,ultra-low-level jets of 925 hPa,shear lines close to the middle and low layers,forward-dip troughs,etc.are beneficial to increase precipitation Strength,the stable maintenance of warm shear line and static front shear line and the weak wind field structure in the middle layer.3)The stable maintenance and slow movement of rain belts,high precipitation efficiency and long maintenance time,lead to continuous heavy rains.4)On the average field of heavy rain,the wind speed in the middle level is weak,the lower level has a shear line of wind direction and wind speed,forward dip trough,upper level convergence,lower level divergence,upper level negative vorticity,middle level positive vorticity,strong convective upward movement Stretching to more than 12 km,sufficient water vapor transport and strong water vapor convergence,high energy,high humidity and other structural features.Finally,a conceptual model of heavy rain in Jiangxi is proposed.All these provide references and basis for the effective prediction of the heavy rain in Jiangxi.

关 键 词：江西大暴雨 中尺度分析 物理量诊断 概念模型 

分 类 号：P458.121.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]