基于HFLTS的漂浮式水上光伏电站投资风险评价  

Investment Risk Evaluation of Floating Water Photovoltaic Power Station based on HFLTS

作　　者：葛鑫 GE Xin(GD Long Yuan Power Technology&Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100036,China)

机构地区：[1]国能龙源电力技术工程有限责任公司,北京100036

出　　处：《能源研究与管理》2021年第2期74-82,共9页Energy Research and Management

摘　　要：水上光伏是未来我国南方发展光伏产业的最优选择。但当前对水上光伏电站的研究较少,且风险评价是项目可行性研究的重要组成部分。为推进水上光伏电站的健康发展,通过对影响漂浮式水上光伏电站项目的投资风险因素进行识别,归纳梳理后建立了一套包含技术风险、经济风险、环境风险和社会风险的指标体系。考虑到评价语言的不确定性以及决策环境的模糊性,本文采用犹豫模糊语言术语集(HFLTS)进行信息收集,并采用最优最劣法(BWM)确定指标权重,最后通过模糊综合评价得出我国漂浮式水上光伏电站整体投资风险处于较低水平。Water photovoltaic power station projects are the optimal choices for the development of photovoltaic industry in south China in the future.However,there are few researches on the floating water photovoltaic power station projects,and risk assessment is a crucial part of the feasibility study of projects.Therefore,to make up for the current research gap,this paper established a set of index system including technical risk,economic risk,social risk,and environmental risk through identifying the investment risk factors that affect the floating water photovoltaic power station projects.Considering the uncertainty of the evaluation linguistic information and the fuzziness of the decision-making environment,this paper adopted the hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets(HFLTS)to collect information,and utilized the best and worst method(BWM)to determine the index weights.Finally,through the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,it is concluded that the overall investment risk of China's floating water photovoltaic power station is at a medium low level.

关 键 词：漂浮式水上光伏电站 风险评价 犹豫模糊语言术语集 最优最劣法 

分 类 号：TK519[动力工程及工程热物理—热能工程]