养老保险基金支出对居民消费影响的实证研究  

Empirical Study on the Influence of Endowment Insurance Fund Expenditure on Residential Consumption

作　　者：叶媛媛 周石鹏[1] YE Yuan-yuan;ZHOU Shi-peng(School of Management,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China)

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093

出　　处：《经济研究导刊》2021年第16期79-83,共5页Economic Research Guide

摘　　要：国民经济的增长主要是由投资、出口和消费这三大因素的拉动,而消费起着基础作用。影响居民消费的因素有很多,基本养老保险制度是影响我国居民消费增长的一个重要因素。基于社会保险制度与居民消费现状进行定性分析,根据1992—2017年面板数据构建时间序列模型,通过将变量滞后的方法消除序列相关性的影响,从而深入研究养老保险基金支出对居民消费的影响。研究结果表明,人口老龄化加剧和物价上涨会抑制居民消费欲望,而养老保险基金支出的增加会减少预防性储蓄,从而对居民消费有着正向促进作用。The growth of national economy is mainly driven by investment,export and consumption,and consumption plays a fundamental role.There are many factors that affect residents’consumption,and the basic endowment insurance system is an important factor affecting the growth of residents’consumption in China.Based on the qualitative analysis of the current situation of social insurance system and residents’consumption,this paper constructs a time series model based on the panel data from 1992 to 2017,and eliminates the influence of sequence correlation by variable lag,so as to deeply study the impact of pension fund expenditure on Residents’consumption.The results show that:the aging population and rising prices will inhibit residents’consumption desire,while the increase of pension fund expenditure will reduce Preventive Savings,which has a positive role in promoting residents’consumption.

关 键 词：养老保险基金 居民消费 时间序列 滞后变量 

分 类 号：F842[经济管理—保险]