居民消费价格指数交叉效应影响分析  

Analysis of Cross-effect Factors for Consumer Price Index Data

作　　者：赵波 李德影 赵桂燕[1] Zhao Bo;Li Deying;Zhao Guiyan(College of Economics and Management,Heilongjiang Bayi Agricultural University,Daqing 163319)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江八一农垦大学经济管理学院,大庆163319

出　　处：《黑龙江八一农垦大学学报》2021年第3期116-120,共5页journal of heilongjiang bayi agricultural university

基　　金：大庆市社科联重点项目(DSGB2020022);黑龙江八一农垦大学城乡融合发展协同创研究团队项目(TDJH201908);“三纵三横”基础培育项目(RRCPY201906)。

摘　　要：居民消费价格指数(CPI)是反映人民生活水平以及消费状态的一个极其重要的经济指标,也是基于宏观经济调控市场经济价格的重要指标,研究居民消费价格指数对市场经济调控有着极其重要的意义。选取1999~2018年的数据,建立多元线性模型以及二次多项式回归模型,通过逐步回归方法,消除共线性并筛选出对CPI有显著性影响的变量以及交叉因素。结果表明食品和居住,衣着和医疗保健,食品和娱乐教育文化的交叉因素能更好地解释CPI数据的波动。Consumer price index(CPI)was an extremely important economic index reflecting people's living and consumption,which was also an important index for market economy price control based on macroeconomics.Therefore,it is of great significance to study consumer price index for market economy control.Data from 1999 to 2018 were selected to establish multiple linear models and quadratic polynomial regression models.The multicollinearity was eliminated and crossover factors that had significant influence on CPI were screened out by using stepwise regression method.The results showed that the cross factors of food and housing,clothing and medical care,food and entertainment education culture could explain the fluctuation of CPI data.

关 键 词：居民消费价格指数 二次多项式回归模型 逐步回归 交叉效应 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学] O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]