两种不同类型土坡的失效风险定量计算方法探讨  

Discussion on Quantitative Calculation Method of Failure Risk for Two Different Types of Soil Slopes

作　　者：吴超瑜 陈文霞 潘健[2] WU Chaoyu;CHEN Wenxia;PAN Jian(Guangdong Yuantian Engineering Co.,Ltd, Guangzhou 511340, China;College of Civil Engineering & Transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China)

机构地区：[1]广东源天工程有限公司,广东广州511340 [2]华南理工大学土木与交通学院,广东广州510640

出　　处：《广东水利水电》2021年第6期1-5,共5页Guangdong Water Resources and Hydropower

摘　　要：根据从勘察到施工结束整个过程中能够获取工程信息的程度,将土坡工程按重要性进行分类。以土坡工程经验数据为基础,采用概率理论与传统土坡稳定分析方法探讨了两种不同类别的土坡稳定安全系数与其失效概率的相互关系。假定土坡的稳定安全系数服从正态分布,变异系数为常数,通过反分析法获得安全系数与失效概率之间的关系曲线。工程案例应用分析结果显示:利用滑坡失效的风险定量计算结果可以帮助我们减少主观判断对土坡失效分析的影响。According to the degree of engineering information that can be obtained throughout the process from survey to the end of construction,the earth slope project is classified according to its importance.Based on the empirical data of soil slope engineering,the interrelationship between the stability safety coefficient of two different categories of soil slopes and their probability of failure is explored by using probability theory and traditional soil slope stability analysis methods.Assuming that the stability safety coefficients of soil slopes obey normal distribution and the coefficient of variation is constant,the relationship curves between the safety coefficient and the failure probability are obtained by inverse analysis method.The analysis results of engineering case application show that using the results of quantitative calculation of landslide failure risk can help reduce the influence of subjective judgment on soil slope failure analysis.

关 键 词：土坡 安全系数 失效概率 风险分析 

分 类 号：TU413.6+2[建筑科学—岩土工程]