英国脱欧对中国经济贸易的影响——基于GTAP模型分析  

The Effects of Brexit on Chinese Economy and Foreign Trade:A Simulation Analysis Using the GTAP Model

作　　者：朱庆华[1] 米明金程 张晓倩 Zhu Qing-hua;Mi Ming-jin-cheng;Zhang Xiao-qian

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学国际经贸学院,济南250014

出　　处：《亚太经济》2021年第3期54-61,共8页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“比较优势演化视角下我国自由贸易区战略与产业升级路径选择研究”(19BGJ018)。

摘　　要：使用GATP模型对英国脱欧的经济贸易效应进行模拟发现,英国脱欧后与欧盟签署贸易与合作协定未对中国整体经济和福利产生负面影响。随着英国和欧盟之间货物和服务贸易壁垒增多,中国国内生产总值和福利水平有小幅提升,贸易总量扩张但呈逆差倾向,进出口国别和产品结构呈现多元变动。英国脱欧后与美国、澳大利亚等国家和地区达成自贸协定并加入CPTPP,对中国外贸和整体福利有一定负面影响。中国应密切关注英国脱欧对中英和中欧经贸关系的影响,并采取有效措施防范不利影响。Using the GATP model to simulate the economic and trade effects of Brexit,we find that the Trade and Cooperation Agreement signed between the UK and the EU after Brexit has no negative impact on China’s overall economy and welfare,which improve slightly as trade barriers to goods and services between the UK and the EU increase.The agreement leads to a decline in China’s exports and an increase in imports,which expands China’s total trade volume but tends to cause trade deficits.The agreement also causes a diversified shift in the direction and product structure of China’s imports and exports.Furthermore,the future UK FTAs reached with the United States,Australia,New Zealand and other CPTPP countries after Brexit have a negative impact on China’s foreign trade and overall welfare.China should pay close attention to the effects of Brexit on China-UK and China-EU economic and trade relations and address the negative impact of the UK’s FTAs on China’s economy and trade by further implementing its own FTA strategy.

关 键 词：英国脱欧 对外贸易 自贸协定 GTAP模型 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济]