制造业回归趋势下美国对中国直接投资与两国贸易失衡研究  

The Relationship between US Direct Investment in China and Sino-US Trade Imbalance under the Reshoring Initiative

作　　者：王颖[1] 周金凯[2] 田文泉[3] Wang Ying;Zhou Jin-kai;Tian Wen-quan

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国家对外开放研究院,北京100029 [2]北京青年政治学院,北京100102 [3]对外经济贸易大学外语学院,北京100029

出　　处：《亚太经济》2021年第3期96-105,共10页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“产业视角下中美贸易失衡、结构性冲击与美国对华贸易政策研究”(19BGJ045)。

摘　　要：以美国制造业回归为背景,结合美国对华直接投资的贸易效应,运用协整方法和误差修正模型,分析美国劳动密集型产业、资本密集型产业和技术密集型产业对中国直接投资与中美贸易失衡的关系。结果表明:长期来看,美国三类产业对中国直接投资与中美贸易失衡存在正向关系,且美国技术密集型产业对中国直接投资呈快速增长态势,对中美贸易失衡的影响力逐步增强;短期内,美国劳动和资本密集型产业的投资变动对中美贸易失衡的影响程度较大。This paper analyzes the relationship between US direct investment in China and Sino-US trade imbalance by labor-intensive,capital-intensive,and technology-intensive industries,using co-integration methods and error correction models.The results show that in the long run,there is a positive relationship between US direct investment in China by the three types of industries and the Sino-US trade imbalance,and the US technology-intensive industries’direct investment in China is showing a rapid growth trend,and the influence of the Sino-US trade imbalance is gradually increasing.In the short term,investment changes in labor and capital-intensive industries will have a greater impact on the trade imbalance between the two countries.

关 键 词：制造业回归 产业分类 对中国直接投资 中美贸易失衡 

分 类 号：F203[经济管理—国民经济]