2018/2019年冬季中国南方地区持续阴雨特征及分析  

Characteristics and analysis of persistent rain in winter in southern China in 2018/2019

作　　者：葛非凡 陈靖溢 蒋跃林[3] 虞佳维 冯瑜骅 董文娟 毛克彪[6] GE Feifan;CHEN Jingyi;JIANG Yuelin;YU Jiawei;FENG Yuhua;DONG Wenjuan;MAO Kebiao(Meteorological Bureau of Tongxiang,Tongxiang 311500;Meteorological Bureau of Yangbi Yi Autonomous County,Yunnan Province,Yangbi 672500;School of Resources and Environment,Anhui Agricultural University,Hefei 230036;Shengsi Meteorological Bureau,Shengsi 202450;Jiaxing Meteorological Bureau,Jiaxing 314000;Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]浙江省桐乡市气象局,桐乡314500 [2]云南省漾濞彝族自治县气象局,漾濞672500 [3]安徽农业大学资源与环境学院,合肥230036 [4]嵊泗县气象局,嵊泗202450 [5]浙江省嘉兴市气象局,嘉兴314000 [6]中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《安徽农业大学学报》2021年第2期279-285,共7页Journal of Anhui Agricultural University

基　　金：国家重点研究发展计划(2018YFD0300905);国家重点研发计划重点专项(2018YFC1506602,2018YFC1506502);2020年桐乡市引导类科技计划项目(202002197)共同资助。

摘　　要：利用欧洲中心ERA5再分析资料和NOAA提供的海洋尼诺指数研究了2018/2019年冬季中国南方地区持续阴雨天气的特征和主要影响因素。运用Morlet小波变换分析了南方地区的冬季太阳直接辐射量变化周期。结果表明:(1)2018/2019年中国南方冬季降水主要为东北-西南向分布,降水量西南部较大,降水量增幅东北部较大,对流性降水所占比重南部地区较大。冬季南方地区接受的太阳直接辐射量比往年同期减少40%以上。(2)南方地区的冬季太阳直接辐射量存在4 a时间尺度的变化周期,且未来太阳直接辐射量仍然偏低,有进一步减少的趋势。(3)冬季东亚环流整体形势有利于引导冷空气多从东路影响南方地区。西太平洋副热带高压较常年同期偏强,西申脊点异常偏西,有利于孟加拉湾和印度洋的暖湿气流在对流层中层向中国南方地区的输送,造成冬季南方地区降水量较常年同期明显偏多。低层中心位置位于台湾岛附近反气旋环流的增强在低层从南海上空为南方地区连续阴雨持续输送了大量水汽。中国南方偏西偏南地区异常降水水汽供应主要来自925 hPa至800 hPa附近,而偏东偏北地区则主要来自800 hPa以上至700 hPa附近。Based on the European Center ERA5 reanalysis data and the Ocean Nino Index provided by NOAA, the characteristics and main influencing factors of the continuous rainy weather in southern China in the winter of 2018/2019 were studied. The change period of winter direct solar radiation in the southern region was analyzed by Morlet wavelet transform. The results showed that :(1) The winter precipitation in southern China in 2018/2019 was mainly distributed in the northeast-southwest direction, with larger precipitation in the southwest, a more significant increase in precipitation in the northeast, and a more significant proportion of convective precipitation in the southern region. The direct solar radiation received in the southern region in winter is reduced by more than 40% compared with the same period of previous years.(2) The direct solar radiation in the southern region has a cycle of 4 a time scale, and the direct solar radiation in the future is still low, and there is a trend of further reduction.(3) The overall situation of the East Asian circulation in winter was conducive to guiding cold air to affect the southern region from the East Road. The Western Pacific subtropical high was more potent than the same period of the previous year. The west ridge point was abnormally westward, which was conducive to the transportation of the warm and humid airflow from the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean in the middle troposphere to southern China, resulting in significantly more precipitation in winter in the southern region than in the same period of the previous year. The central location of the lower layer was located near the island of Taiwan. The enhancement of the anticyclone circulation in the lower layer continuously transported a large amount of water vapor from the South China Sea to the continuous rain in southern China. The water vapor supply of abnormal precipitation in the southwest regions of China mainly came from around 925 hPa to 800 hPa, while the northeast regions mainly came from above 800 hP

关 键 词：冬季阴雨 水汽通量 环流 太阳直接辐射 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]