经济暴露度与洪涝灾害损失关系分析  

Analysis of the Relationship between Economic Exposure and Flood Disaster Loss

作　　者：仲夏 石少宏 李宁 Zhong Xia;Shi Shaohong;Li ning(Inner Mongolia Meteorological Observatory,Inner Mongolia Huhhot 010051;Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875;Inner Mongolia Meteorological Institute,Hohhot 010051)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古气象台,内蒙古呼和浩特010051 [2]北京师范大学地理科学学部民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [3]内蒙古气象科学研究所,内蒙古呼和浩特010051

出　　处：《内蒙古气象》2021年第1期24-28,共5页Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia

摘　　要：文章通过分析2015—2018年县域尺度下,不同致灾因子强度和经济暴露度条件下,暴雨洪涝灾害损失与影响因子之间的关系,量化致灾因子与经济暴露度对暴雨洪涝灾害损失的影响。结果表明:2015—2018年我国暴雨洪涝灾害空间分布广,灾害损失主要集中在西南地区东南部、华南、江南、江淮、黄淮和华北一带,损失多以中小型为主,局部地区较为严重;对于不同程度的经济暴露度地区,灾害过程总降水量与暴雨洪涝灾害直接经济损失存在着非线性关系,在经济暴露度中低值区,直接经济损失随着降水量增加,在经济暴露度高值区,直接经济损失与降水量呈现出“先升后降”的趋势;对于中小型暴雨洪涝灾害,致灾因子强度越大损失占比越大,经济发展越好损失占比越小,对于大型、特大型暴雨洪涝灾害致灾因子强度和灾害损失占比之间的关系并不显著,当地的经济暴露度与损失占比呈现较为显著的关系,经济暴露度越高,地区生产总值越高,损失占比越小。This paper quantifies the effects of the disaster causing factors and economic exposure on flood disaster loss by analyzing the relationships between flood disaster loss and the influencing factors at the regional scale of 2015-2018 under different disaster factor intensities and economic exposure conditions.The results showed that there was a wide spatial distribution of Heavy Storm Waterlogging Disasters in China from 2015 to 2018,and the disaster losses were mainly concentrated in the southeastern part of Southwest China,southern China,Jiangnan,Jiang Huai,Huang Huai,and the belt of North China,where the losses were mostly of small to medium size and were severe locally;For regions with varying degrees of economic exposure,there was a non-linear relationship between total precipitation during the disaster process and direct economic loss from storm waterlogging disasters.In the middle and low value area of economic exposure,the direct economic loss increased with precipitation,while in regions with high economic exposure,direct economic loss showed a trend of"rising first followed by falling";For small and medium-sized flood disasters,the greater the disaggregation factor intensity loss ratio and the smaller the ratio of losses to economic development.The relationship between disaggregation factor intensity and disaster loss ratio was not significant for large-scale flood disasters.The local economic exposure had a significant relationship with the proportion of losses.The higher the economic exposure,the higher the regional GDP and the smaller the proportion of losses.

关 键 词：洪涝灾害 直接经济损失 经济暴露 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]