人口结构视角下中国进出口贸易的影响研究——基于1998—2018年中国省级面板数据的实证分析  

Analysis of the Impact of Demographic Structure Changes on China’s Import and Export Trade——Based on China’s Provincial Panel data from 1998 to 2018

作　　者：江星燕 周敏[1] JIANG Xing-yan;ZHOU Min(Business School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China)

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093

出　　处：《经济研究导刊》2021年第18期114-116,148,共4页Economic Research Guide

摘　　要：在全球贸易失衡的时代背景下,我国长期处于贸易顺差的格局中。对中国1998—2018年30个省市区的面板数据进行固定效应回归分析后发现,人口年龄结构是导致该格局的重要原因。在此基础上,由于我国各地区之间经济水平差异大,需要进一步将其划分为东中西部进行实证检验。结果显示,幼年抚养比和老年抚养比均对贸易账户有着显著的负向影响。分区域回归中,仅东部地区通过稳健性检验。为促进贸易平衡,建议贯彻试点宽松人口政策并促进教育事业发展。In the era of global trade imbalances,after conducting a fixed effects regression analysis on panel data of 30 provinces in China from 1998 to 2018,the reasons behind my country’s long-term trade surplus are presented.Due to the large economic differences in China,it is necessary to divide 30 provinces into the east,middle and west for empirical testing.The results show that both the youth dependency ratio and the old dependency ratio have a significant negative impact on the trade account.In the regional regression,only the eastern region passed the robustness test.In order to promote trade balance,it is recommended to implement the pilot loose population policy and promote the education.

关 键 词：贸易账户 人口年龄结构 分区域回归 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]