基于多元线性回归预测气井稳产时间新方法  

A new method for predicting stable production period of gas wells based on multivariate linear regression

作　　者：周敏[1] 何敏[2] 向阳[1] 邓婷 庞宇来[1] 王昱珩 陈渝页 成艳玲[1] Zhou Min;He Min;Xiang Yang;Deng Ting;Pang Yulai;Wang Yuheng;Chen Yuye;Cheng Yanling(Chongqing Gas District,PetroChina Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Chongqing 400021,China;Petro­China Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Chengdu,Sichuan 610051,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油西南油气田公司重庆气矿 [2]中国石油西南油气田公司

出　　处：《天然气勘探与开发》2021年第2期63-69,共7页Natural Gas Exploration and Development

基　　金：中国石油西南油气田公司重大科技专项项目“川东地区天然气勘探开发关键技术研究与应用”(编号:2016ZD01)。

摘　　要：气井的稳产时间是生产部门进行合理配产时需要考虑的主要因素,也是影响气藏最终采收率的主要因素,所以准确预测气井稳产时间对于气井(藏)科学开发具有重要意义。目前能够较准确预测气井稳产时间的是数值模拟法,其他方法如经验法、生产压差法、节点优化配产法等预测气井稳产时间,因其使用条件差异大,计算也较复杂,故在四川盆地东部地区实际生产中应用较少。以川东地区大量已结束稳产期气井的实际生产数据作为样本进行分析,发现影响气井稳产时间的主要因素是:①气井配产比;②剩余动态储量;③无阻流量。气井稳产时间受多因素影响,因此采用多元线性回归的方法建立了川东地区气井稳产时间与各影响参数的数学方程,用于预测气井稳产时间。选用样本以外的气井进行验证,对比已结束稳产期的生产井的实际稳产时间、产量未进入递减的生产井的数值模拟稳产时间,证实用该方程预测的稳产时间与实际或数模结果相对误差小于10%。结论认为,该方法建立的预测气井稳产时间方程具有较高的可靠性,可用于生产部门组织生产,做到有的放矢、科学决策。For gas wells,the stable production period is not only the main consideration in reasonable proration but also one of the most important factors affecting the ultimate recovery in gas reservoirs.Therefore,its accurate prediction is of great significance to develop scientifically gas reservoirs.At present,numerical simulation with relative accuracy is one popular method for predicting this period.However,others such as empirical method,production pressure difference method,and nodal system analysis method are used less frequently in eastern Sichuan Basin because of different application conditions and complicated calculation.After analyzing many real data in post-stable production gas wells in eastern basin,it is found that the main factors affecting the stable production period are prorated production,residual dynamic reserves,and absolute open flow(AOF).So,a mathematical equation based on multivariate linear regression was proposed,and also tested for other gas wells.In addition,the stable production period of some wells finishing the stable production was compared with that of others still in stable production.It is proved that the relative error of the stable production period individually predicted by this equation and numerical simulation is less than 10%.It is concluded that the proposed equation is reliable and helpful for making production plan and scientific decision.

关 键 词：稳产时间 多元线性回归 合理配产 无阻流量 动态储量 四川盆地东部 

分 类 号：TE37[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]