页岩气SEC上市储量起算标准的经济影响因素  

Economic influencing factors on listed reserves of shale gas in SEC calculation standard

作　　者：林兴 李舫 吴娟[1] 张劲 蒋鑫 Lin Xing;Li Fang;Wu Juan;Zhang Jin;Jiang Xin(Exploration and Development Research Institute,PetroChina Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Chengdu,Si­chuan 610041,China;Shale Gas Research Institute,PetroChina Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Chengdu,Sichuan 610051,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油西南油气田分公司勘探开发研究院 [2]中国石油西南油气田分公司页岩气研究院

出　　处：《天然气勘探与开发》2021年第2期106-112,共7页Natural Gas Exploration and Development

摘　　要：随着国内三大石油公司在美国上市,每年要按照SEC标准对各个公司的油气证实储量进行披露。页岩气作为一种新兴的油气资源,在目前的能源结构体系中占有一定比例,也是未来天然气能源供给的有力支撑。为了厘清影响页岩气SEC储量经济性的关键因素,采用单因素评价、多因素约束的模式,分析了多个经济因素对单井储量最低累计产气量、储量经济性的影响。分析结果表明:①气价是影响储量经济性的最敏感因素,其次是投资,影响最小的是操作成本;②在页岩气SEC证实未开发储量评估中,最低累计产气量(EUR_(ming))与累计产气量(EUR)之间的差值(Nx)决定了该储量是否具有经济性,气价、操作成本对储量经济性影响分别呈非线性正比关系和非线性反比关系,但随着气价(操作成本)的增加,气价(操作成本)对储量经济性影响程度逐渐降低,而投资与储量经济性之间则呈线性反比关系;③不同的气价下,操作成本及投资对EUR_(ming)和Nx的影响程度呈现不同的趋势,随着气价的增加,操作成本对EUR_(ming)、Nx的影响程度逐渐减小,投资对EUR_(ming)、Nx的影响程度也呈现逐渐变小趋势。After listed in the securities market of the United States,three major oil companies in China must report their proven oil and gas reserves in accordance with SEC standards every year.As an emerging oil and gas resources,shale gas occupies a certain proportion in the current energy structure system and will be a strong support for natural-gas supply in the future.In order to make clear about the factors influencing the economics of SEC shale-gas reserves,a model evaluated by a single factor and constrained by multiple factors was established to analyze the influence of multiple economic factors on the minimum cumulative gas production of individual-well-controlled reserves and the economics of reserves.Results show that:(1)gas price is the most sensitive factor affecting the economy of the reserves,followed by investment,and operation cost is the least important factor;(2)in the evaluation on SEC proven undeveloped reserves of shale gas,the difference(Nx)of the minimum cumulative gas production(EUR_(ming))from the cumulative gas production(EUR)determines whether the reserves is economical.The influence of gas price and operation cost on the economics of the reserves shows a positive non-linear relationship and an inverse non-linear relationship,respectively.However,with the increase of gas price/operation cost,their influence on the economics of reserves gradually decreases.However,there is a linear inverse relationship between the investment and the economics of reserves;and(3)at different gas prices,operation cost and investment have different influence trends on EUR_(ming) and Nx.With the increase of gas price,the influence of operation cost on EUR_(ming) and Nx gradually decreases,and the influence of investment on EUR_(ming) and Nx also decreases gradually.

关 键 词：最低累计产气量 页岩气 盈亏平衡 影响因素 SEC证实储量 储量经济性 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]