突发事件对生猪企业股价收益率影响的实证研究--以非洲猪瘟为例  

Empirical Study on the Impact of Unexpected Events on the Stock Price Return Rate of Live Pig Enterprises--Take African Swine Fever as An Example

作　　者：麻坤 刘畅[2] 张玉苗 MA Kun;LIU Chang;ZHANG Yu-miao(School of Economics and Management,Hebei University of Science and Technology,Shijiazhuang 050018,China;School of Economics and Management,Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding 071000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北科技大学经济管理学院,河北石家庄050018 [2]河北农业大学经济管理学院,河北保定071000

出　　处：《河北科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2021年第2期86-93,共8页Journal of Hebei University of Science and Technology:Social Sciences

基　　金：2020年教育部人文社科项目(20YJC790095)。

摘　　要：中国是生猪产品生产和消费大国,生猪市场平稳运行关系着生猪产业的健康发展,也关系到居民的切身利益。受到2018年非洲猪瘟事件的影响,国内猪肉价格频繁剧烈波动,生猪企业面临的市场不确定性加剧,生猪产业发展面临危机。在梳理了非洲猪瘟事件对生猪产业和资本市场的影响机理的基础上,利用事件分析法就非洲猪瘟事件对中国12家生猪产业的上市企业股票价格收益率影响进行实证分析。研究结果发现该事件导致了生猪企业超额收益率的普遍增加,但平均超额收益率在不同时期呈现不同幅度的波动,累计超额收益先上升后下降,说明非洲猪瘟事件对生猪企业的影响呈现一定滞后性和不确定性。建议政府和企业重视该类突发事件,并通过长效的产业政策和风险管理政策平抑突发事件给市场带来的冲击。China is a major producer and consumer of live pig products,and the stable operation of the live pig market is closely related to the healthy development of the live pig industry and the vital interests of the residents.Affected by the African Swine Fever event in 2018,domestic pork prices fluctuated frequently and violently.As a result,pig enterprises faced great market uncertainty and pig industry faced a big crisis.This study sorted out the impact mechanism of African Swine Fever on the pig industry and capital market,and made an empirical analysis on the impact of African Swine Fever on the stock price returns of 12 listed enterprises in China’s pig industry by using the event study method.The results show that the event leads to a general increase in the abnormal return rate of the major pig industry related enterprises,but the average abnormal return rate fluctuates at different ranges in different periods,and the cumulative abnormal return rate first increases and then decreases,indicating that the impact of African Swine Fever event on pig enterprises presents a certain lag and uncertainty.It is suggested that the government and enterprises pay attention to such emergencies,and adopt long-term industrial policies and risk management policies to mitigate the impact of emergencies on the market.

关 键 词：非洲猪瘟 生猪企业 股价收益率 事件分析法 

分 类 号：F592.3[经济管理—旅游管理]