基于岭回归-乘数模型对减税新政影响中国经济复苏的计量分析  

Econometric Analysis on the Impact of New Tax Reduction Policy on China’s Economic Recovery Based on Ridge Regression Multiplier Combination Model

作　　者：张子越 朱家明[1] 焦健[1] Zhang Ziyue;Zhu Jiaming;Jiao Jian(Anhui University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学

出　　处：《哈尔滨师范大学自然科学学报》2021年第3期19-24,共6页Natural Science Journal of Harbin Normal University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(18BJY204);安徽省人文社会科学研究重点项目(SK2017A0428)。

摘　　要：2020年中国出台更大规模减税政策,极大促进中国经济的发展.探究新减税政策对推动中国经济复苏的影响,可以为中国经济发展的目标提供建议,为中国减税降费政策试施行提供支持,促进经济合理有序发展.运用计量模型,通过分析中国近年来的税收收入数据及其影响因素,可以对不减税情况下中国2020年的税收收入进行预测,同时根据各省市已经公布的税收收入预估2020年的税收收入真实值计算出中国的减税降费额,再运用乘数模型,最终得出减税新政可以拉动中国国内生产总值增长约3.23%的结论,并以此提出了要落实减税降费、细化减税领域、创新减税措施等建议.In 2020,a larger tax reduction policy is issued in China,which greatly promotes the development of China’s economy.Exploring the impact of the new tax reduction policy on promoting China’s economic recovery,the suggestions for the goal of China’s economic development are put forwand,the support for the implementation of the tax reduction policy is provided,and the reasonable and orderly development of the economy are promoted.Using the econometric model,through the analysis of China’s tax revenue data and its influencing factors in recent years,China’s tax revenue in 2020 without tax reduction is predicted.At the same time,according to the real value of the tax revenue in 2020 that has been published by various provinces and cities,the amount of tax reduction and fee reduction in China are calculated,then the multiplier model is used,and finally the conclusion is gained:the new tax reduction policy promotes the development of China China’s GDP grew by 3.23%.Based on this,some suggestions are put forward,such as implementing tax reduction and fee reduction,refining tax reduction areas,and innovating tax reduction measures.

关 键 词：减税政策 经济复苏 财政乘数 多元回归 岭回归 计量分析 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]