基于多目标规划对养老服务运营模式的研究  

Research on the Forecast of Bed Demand and Operation Mode of Pension Service

作　　者：高巍[1] 陈师哲 朱家明[1] Gao Wei;Chen Shizhe;Zhu Jiaming(Anhui University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学

出　　处：《哈尔滨师范大学自然科学学报》2021年第3期25-31,共7页Natural Science Journal of Harbin Normal University

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目(19YJCZH069);安徽省教研项目(2020jyxm0017);安徽财经大学教研项目(acjyyb2020011)。

摘　　要：针对中国养老服务现行的运营模式进行研究.首先,建立主成分分析模型确定养老服务床位的主要影响因素,构造主成分与床位数的回归曲线,预测中国养老服务床位数量,求得2019年养老服务床位数874万张、2020年床位数902万张.其次,对中国的31个省市进行的人口数量、人均地区生产总值等因素进行模糊聚类分析,对市场需求进行分类.然后,建立多目标规划模型,求出增加的床位数为887万张、每张床位的收费标准约为9600元时,满足政府合理估计养老服务中床位的需求,制定合理的养老服务床位发展规划的目标.最后,向政府管理部门针对养老床位规划问题提出相关建议.The current operating mode of my country’s elderly care services is researched. First, a principal component analysis model is established and the main influencing factors of elderly care service beds is determined, a regression curve between the principal component and the number of beds is constructed, the number of elderly care service beds in the country is predicted, and 8.74 million elderly care service beds in 2019 and 902 Ten thousand beds in 2020 is obtained. Secondly, a fuzzy cluster analysis of factors such as population size and per capita GDP of 31 provinces and cities in China is carried out to classify market demand. Then, a multi-objective planning model is established to find that the number of additional beds is 8.87 million, and the charge for each bed is about 9,600 yuan. In order to meet the government’s reasonable estimation of the bed demand in the elderly service a reasonable development plan for the elderly service bed goal is formulated. Finally, relevant suggestions to the government management department regarding the planning of elderly care beds.

关 键 词：养老服务 床位预测 主成分分析 多目标规划 商业模式 

分 类 号：D669.6[政治法律—政治学]