图们江流域粮食减产的水热指标与海温异常的关系--以延吉为例(Ⅰ)  

Relationship between water and heat index of grain reduction and sea surface temperature in Tumen River Basin——A case study in Yanji(Ⅰ)

作　　者：金爱芬[1] 郭磊 金日[1] 张守志[1] JIN Aifen;GUO Lei;JIN Ri;ZHANG Shouzhi(College of geography and Marine Sciences,Yanbian University,Yanji,Jilin 133002,China)

机构地区：[1]延边大学地理与海洋科学学院,延吉吉林133002

出　　处：《延边大学农学学报》2021年第2期37-43,共7页Agricultural Science Journal of Yanbian University

基　　金：国家自然基金项目(41807508)。

摘　　要：该研究以图们江流域典型城市—吉林省延吉市为研究区,首先利用1953年1月—2016年12月气温和降水数据以及近30年粮食产量数据,提取了造成该区域粮食减产的水热指标。然后,选取第1个水热指标(5~9月月平均气温之和,T 5-9)进行了研究。最后,利用海表温度资料,结合偏最小二乘回归分析、相关分析方法,提取影响T 5-9的关键海域,并分析T 5-9与关键海域的关系。结果表明:T 5-9与白令海海域、阿留申低压海域、南太平洋海域2~4月海温平均值显著相关,同时偏最小二乘回归系数的绝对值也很大。两者之间的合成分析进一步表明,因T 5-9引起的低温冷害而产生的粮食减产年份与正常年份相比,这3大海域海温距平差异明显。从该研究建立的偏最小二乘回归模型对ΔT 5-9的预测效果来看,ΔT 5-9的预测值小于-2.3℃时,ΔT 5-9的实际值均小于-2.5℃,此时该地区会发生中度或重度延迟型冷害,粮食减产程度大。In this study,the temperature and precipitation data in Yanji from January 1953 to December 2016 and the grain yield data in recent 30 years were used to extract the water and heat index which caused the grain yield reduction in Tumen River Basin.The first water and heat index(the sum of monthly average temperature from May to September,T 5-9)was selected.Based on the sea surface temperature data reconstructed by NOAA,the partial least squares regression analysis and correlation analysis were used to extract the key sea areas affecting T 5-9 and analyze the relationship between T 5-9 and key sea areas.The results showed that T 5-9 was not only significantly correlated with the mean SST of Bering Sea,Aleutian low sea,and South Pacific sea from February to April,but also had a large absolute value of partial least squares regression coefficient.The synthetic analysis showed that there was a significant difference in the sea surface temperature anomaly between the year of grain yield reduction caused by cold damage caused by T 5-9 and the normal year.According to the prediction effect of partial least squares regression model onΔT 5-9,when the predicted value ofΔ5-9 was less than-2.3℃,the actual value ofΔT 5-9 was less than-2.5℃.At this time,Moderate or severe delayed cold damage would occur in Tumen River Basin,and the grain yield would be greatly reduced.

关 键 词：图们江流域 粮食减产 水热指标 低温冷害 海温异常 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]