城市收缩的影响因素测度及应对策略——以延边朝鲜族自治州为例  

Influencing factors measurement of urban shrinkage and coping strategies of county——A case study in Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture,China

作　　者：乔泽浩 栾志理 丁月龙 吕弼顺[1] 张达[1] QIAO Zehao;LUAN Zhili;DING Yuelong;LV Bishun;ZHANG Da(College of Geography and Ocean Sciences,Yanbian University,Yanji Jilin 133000,China;College of Environment and Planning,Liaocheng University,Liaocheng Shandong 252000,China)

机构地区：[1]延边大学地理与海洋科学学院,吉林延吉133000 [2]聊城大学环境与规划学院,山东聊城252000

出　　处：《延边大学农学学报》2021年第2期102-108,共7页Agricultural Science Journal of Yanbian University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41801184);中国工程院院地合作重点咨询项目(2019-JL-2);国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202010184004)。

摘　　要：以人口流失为主要表征的城市收缩引起国内政界和学界的广泛关注,成为我国新型城镇化和乡村振兴必须面临的重要挑战之一。该文在总结国内外研究的基础上,以延边朝鲜族自治州为研究范围,结合2011—2019年社会经济数据,通过构建收缩度模型和评价指标体系,运用Pearson相关分析和多元线性回归方法,探讨延边州城市收缩状况及影响因素,研究表明:1)图们市、敦化市、龙井市、和龙市、安图县、汪清县以城市收缩为主,其中,和龙市收缩最为严重;2)延边州各县市的城市收缩是主动和被动并存的过程,经济收入和存款余额因素是影响城市收缩的主要原因,其次是区域城镇化水平的差异造成了人口的流动,其中具有鲜明的民族特色;3)抓住城市收缩提供的机遇,运用精明增长和精明收缩理论,合理规划城市空间布局,加快产业结构转型升级,冀图为城市相关规划提供借鉴参考和有益启示。Urban shrinkage with population loss as the main criterion has aroused widespread concern in the domestic political and academic circles,and has become one of the important challenges that China must confront in the process of implementing the new urbanization and rural revitalization strategy.Based on the summary of domestic and foreign research,this paper takes the Yanbian Prefecture as the scope,and constructs the shrinkage model and evaluation index system through Pearson correlation analysis and multiple linear regression methods.The conclusions are drawn as follows:①Skrinking has emerged in Tumen,Dunhua,Longjing,Helong,Antu,and Wangqing City.The Helong City is most serious among others;②While economic income and deposit balance factors are the main factors affecting urban shrinkage,regional urbanization differences have also caused population mobility;③We should make planning for the urban spatial layoutrationally,and accelerate the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure with the opportunity of urban shrinkage.

关 键 词：城市收缩 Pearson相关分析 多元线性回归 延边朝鲜族自治州 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济]