1961—2018年新疆降水量时空变化特征  

Spatiotemporal Precipitation Variation in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2018

作　　者：胡文峰[1,2,3] 姚俊强 张文娜[4] HU Wenfeng;YAO Junqiang;ZHANG Wenna(Institute of Desert Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830002;School of History,Culture and Tourism,Fuyang Normal University,Fuyang,Anhui 236037;Center of Central Asia Atmospheric Science Research,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830002;Xinjiang Vocational&Technical College of Construction,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830002)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]阜阳师范大学历史文化与旅游学院,安徽阜阳236037 [3]中亚大气科学研究中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [4]新疆建设职业技术学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830054

出　　处：《武夷学院学报》2021年第3期45-51,共7页Journal of Wuyi University

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金(2019M653905XB);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目(IDM2018001);荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室开放基金(G2018-02-02);安徽省高校人文社科研究重点项目(SK2019A0335,SK2019A0306)。

摘　　要：利用1961—2018年新疆地区89个气象台站的逐月降水观测数据,采用M-K突变检验、小波分析及EOF分析等方法,研究了新疆区域降水的时空变化规律。结果表明:1961—2018年新疆降水量呈明显的增加趋势,21世纪以来降水量增加趋势放缓;降水量在1987年发生突变,但变化特征时间和空间上存在一定的差异;降水量存在着22~30、12~18、6~9和3~4 a时间尺度的变化周期;从时空模态变化来看,新疆降水量在空间上具有全区一致性、东—西部反向变化、西北—东南部反向变化以及天山西部—周边地区反向变化等4个时空变化模态,时空模态在时间变化上也存在一定的差异。研究结果对于对新疆区域应对气候变化和区域水资源管理,以及"一带一路"核心区的战略规划有着一定的参考价值。In order to study the change pattern of precipitation under the background of global climate change,the precipitation observation data of 89 stations in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2018 were analyzed by using M-K mutation test,wavelet analysis and EOF analysis.The results show that the precipitation in Xinjiang has been increasing obviously in the past 60 years,while the increasing trend of precipitation slowed down after 2000 and the precipitation changed dramatically in 1987,and there were some differences in time and space.There are four types of cycles of precipitation in 22~30、12~18、6~9 and 3~4 years,and its fluctuations control the temporal change of precipitation in Xinjiang.There are four variations in Xinjiang's precipitation:spatial consistency,east-west inversion,northwest-southeast inversion,and western Tianshan-surrounding area inversion,but there are also some differences in time changes of these four laws.The research results of this paper have certain reference value for Xinjiang's regional water resources management and even“The Belt and Road”strategic planning.

关 键 词：降水量 时空变化 时空模态 新疆 

分 类 号：P94[天文地球—自然地理学]