水资源系统对鄱阳湖流域城镇化的响应关系研究  

The Response of Water Resources System to Urbanization in Poyang Lake Basin

作　　者：傅春[1] 罗勇 裴伍涵 邓俊鹏 王乐志 FU Chun;LUO Yong;PEI Wu-han;DENG Jun-peng;WANG Le-zhi(School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学建筑工程学院,南昌330031

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2021年第6期55-60,68,共7页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家社科基金年度项目(18BGL187);江西省自然科学基金项目(10181BAB206046)。

摘　　要：为了探究城镇化发展与水资源利用的内在响应机制及响应程度,以便优化配置水资源,协调城镇发展速度与水资源开发利用程度。以水资源时空分布为基石,构建响应度模型,由熵权法确定权重,相关分析法分析城镇化与水资源利用的相关关系。结果表明:鄱阳湖流域城镇化发展水平和水资源利用程度同步增长。城镇化系统中社会、人口和空间城镇化的上升趋势较为同步,经济起伏较大,前期有衰退迹象,但从2016年开始呈现出增强趋势。鄱阳湖流域属于典型湿润区资源禀赋受降雨影响较大,赋存不稳定,再加上城镇化的快速发展,水资源系统负荷不断加载。城镇化的发展对城镇水资源的开发利用程度有极大的依赖效应。城镇化对水资源系统有两面效应,一方面城镇化进程中需要消耗大量的水资源,另一方面城镇化的发展客观上促进了水资源系统。In order to explore the internal response mechanism and response degree of urbanization development and water resources utilization,and optimize the allocation of water resources,and coordinate the urban development speed and the degree of water resources development and utilization,the temporal and spatial distribution of water resources is taken as the cornerstone,a response model is constructed,the weight is determined by the entropy weight method,and the correlation analysis method analyzes the correlation between urbanization and water resources utilization.The results show that the urbanization development level and the utilization of water resources in the Poyang Lake Basin increases simultaneously.The upward trend of social,demographic,and spatial urbanization in the urbanization system is relatively synchronized,with large economic fluctuations and signs of decline in the early stage,but it has shown an increasing trend since 2016.The Poyang Lake Basin is a typical humid area.The resources endowment is greatly affected by rainfall,and the occurrence is unstable.Coupled with the rapid development of urbanization,the load of the water resources system is constantly loading.The development of urbanization has a great effect on the development and utilization of urban water resources.Urbanization has two-sided effects on the water resources system.On the one hand,a lot of water resources are consumed in the process of urbanization.On the other hand,the development of urbanization promotes the water resources system objectively.

关 键 词：鄱阳湖流域 水资源利用 响应度 城镇化 熵权法 回归分析 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]