朝韩关系深陷僵局的原因及前景  

The Causes for the Deep Impasse in the DPRK-ROK Relationship and Its Prospect

作　　者：李军[1,2] Li Jun(Institute for Strategic Studies,Party School of the Central Committee of C.P.C(National School of Governance);Institute of Worldwide Ideology,Party School of the Central Committee of C.P.C(National School of Governance))

机构地区：[1]中共中央党校(国家行政学院)国际战略研究院 [2]中共中央党校(国家行政学院)世界思潮研究所

出　　处：《和平与发展》2021年第3期79-92,137,共15页Peace and Development

摘　　要：2018年朝韩关系以平昌冬奥会为契机大为改善,两国最高领导人就全面改善并发展双边关系达成共识。但自2019年以来,朝韩关系大幅倒退,至今仍深陷僵局、未见起色。从朝韩关系整个演变过程可以发现,其发展严重受制于美国因素、朝核问题、朝韩互动以及新冠肺炎疫情等因素影响。由于双方总体秉持理性态度并付出努力,朝韩关系并没有失控和破局。随着美国拜登政府开始执政、文在寅政府进入执政末期等一系列新变化出现,朝韩关系发展前景的不确定性有所增加,仍面临诸多困难与挑战。今后,朝韩关系要真正走出历史轮回,开创和解合作新局面,尚需相互尊重、相互理解,尤其需要高超的政治智慧和保持战略清醒。Relations between North and South Koreas improved dramatically in 2018 as a result of the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics,when the supreme leaders of the two countries reached a consensus to comprehensively improve and develop bilateral relations.However,since 2019,relationship between the two countries has taken a significant step backwards and is still mired in stalemate with no sign of improvement.From the whole evolution of the bilateral relationship,we may find that its development has been severely constrained by the US factor,the nuclear issue,the inter-Korean interactions,and the COVID-19 pandemics.Nonetheless,due to the rationality and efforts of both sides,the interKorean relationship has not gone out of control and broken down.With the Biden administration coming to power and the Moon Jae-in administration entering its final phase,the prospects for the development of inter-Korean relations have become more uncertain in the face of multiple difficulties and challenges.Despite all these,as long as the two sides respect and understand each other,seize the strategic opportunity,and overcome the difficulties,it is entirely possible for them to jointly open up a new situation of cooperation and reconciliation in the future.

关 键 词：朝韩关系 美朝关系 朝核问题 文在寅 拜登政府 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]