基于多元分区建模指标优化的“一带一路”人口空间化研究  

Research on the spatialization of population on the Belt and Road based on optimization of multi-divisional modeling indexes

作　　者：徐甜雨 赵学胜[1] 陈芳馨 杨艺 XU Tianyu;ZHAO Xuesheng;CHEN Fangxin;YANG Yi(College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology(Beijing), Beijing 100083, China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)地球科学与测绘工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《国土资源遥感》2021年第2期153-161,共9页Remote Sensing for Land & Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“面向2030议程的SDGs空间型监测方法研究”(编号:41930650)资助。

摘　　要：目前常用的人口分区建模方法中人口分布指标需根据地区特征进行具体优化。针对“一带一路”沿线发展中国家的地理特征,提出了高光平原区、高光丘陵区、弱光平原区和弱光丘陵区4种地理分区模式,并通过调整人口分布指标、融合功能区人口指数等方法对多元分区的建模指标进行优化,最后以塔吉克斯坦为研究区绘制了30 m人口分布图(TJK_POP),并将TJK_POP与各分区采用单一指标的建模结果(基于夜间灯光的建模结果NTL_POP和基于宜居指数的建模结果HSI_POP)进行对比验证。结果显示,TJK_POP的平均相对误差(mean relative error,MRE)为22.57%,4类分区的MRE分别为28.01%,19.33%,17.99%和24.97%,精度均优于NTL_POP和HSI_POP,同时TJK_POP也减少了机场、工厂等商业用地的流动人口对实际人口分布的干扰。文章针对多元分区的人口分布指标优化可为“一带一路”沿线其他类似地区的人口空间化研究提供参考。At present,the commonly used partition modeling of population can reflect the spatial differences and dynamic changes of population distribution.Nevertheless,due to the limitations of methods and data,the population distribution indicators in multi-partition also need to be specifically optimized according to regional characteristics to improve the accuracy of population spatialization.Based on the geographical characteristics of the developing countries along the“Belt and Road”,the authors proposed four geographic partition of high-light plain area,high-light hilly area,low-light plain area and low-light hilly area,and optimized the modeling index of multi-divisional partition through the adjustment of population distribution indicators,fusion of functional area population index and some other means.Finally,Tajikistan was used as the study area to draw a 30 m population distribution map(TJK_POP),and TJK_POP was compared with modeling results of using a single index for each district(NTL_POP and HSI_POP)for verification.The results show that the mean relative error(MRE)of TJK_POP is 22.57%,of which the MRE of the four partition are 28.01%,19.33%,17.99%,and 24.97%,respectively.The accuracy is better than that of NTL_POP and HSI_POP.At the same time,TJK_POP reduces the interference of the flowing population of commercial land such as airports and factories on the actual population distribution.The optimization of population distribution indicators for multi-divisional partition in this paper also provides a reference for the study of population spatialization in other similar areas along the“Belt and Road”.

关 键 词：一带一路 多元分区 指标优化 功能区人口指数 夜间灯光 宜居指数 

分 类 号：TP79[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]