中国奶业价格波动与供给反应研究  

Research on Price Fluctuation and Supply Response of China's Dairy Industry

作　　者：姜百臣[1] 左枣 JIANG Bai-chen;ZUO Zao(School of Economics and Management,South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou 510642)

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学经济管理学院,广东广州510642

出　　处：《南方农村》2021年第3期18-23,共6页South China Rural Area

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“区域一体化背景下农产品区域品牌建设政策与市场的双驱动机制研究”(20BGL296)。

摘　　要：针对目前奶业存在的供需结构性错位、奶农利益被挤压等供给风险问题,基于1995-2020年中国奶业相关数据,以牛奶产量、收购价格、生产成本等为自变量,引入进口量作为外生变量、突发事件为虚拟变量,建立中国牛奶供给反应的Nerlove模型进行实证研究。研究发现牛奶供给存在强滞后性,短期收购价格弹性系数为0.0477,而长期系数达0.5342;牛奶产量受滞后一期产量的影响最大,其它依次为滞后二期牛奶产量、滞后一期生产成本、滞后一期进口量、滞后一期收购价格、食品安全突发事件,其中滞后两期产量和突发事件对牛奶产量具有负向影响;特别的是,进口增加在一定程度上对牛奶生产起着正向引导作用,即进口与产量虽然具有高相关性,但进口对国内生产的压力很大程度上被现阶段消费需求膨胀所抵消,当奶业市场发展成熟饱和后才会显现出来。最后根据结果提出相关政策建议,以期改善中国奶业生产的脆弱性,优化产业链利益分配机制。Based on the relevant data of China's dairy industry from 1995 to 2020,based on the independent variables such as milk production,purchase price and production cost,the paper introduces the import volume as exogenous variable and emergencies as dummy variable,and establishes the Nerlove model of China's milk supply response for empirical research.The results show that:there is a strong lag in China's dairy supply,the short-term price elasticity coefficient is 0.0477,while the long-term coefficient is 0.5342;The supply of dairy industry is most affected by lagged first stage production,followed by lagged second stage milk production,lagged first stage production cost,lagged first stage import volume,lagged first stage purchase price and emergencies,among which lagged second stage production and food safety emergencies have a negative impact.

关 键 词：奶业 供给反应 NERLOVE模型 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]