广西西江经济带人源性沙门菌数据的动态偏离-份额分析  

Dynamic shift-share analysis of data of human Salmonella in Guangxi Xijiang Economic Belt

作　　者：蓝兰[1] 曾献莹[1] 诸葛石养[1] 韦程媛[1] 李秀桂[1] LAN Lan;ZENG Xian-ying;ZHUGE Shi-yang;WEI Cheng-yuan;LI Xiu-gui(Guangxi Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanning,Guangxi 530028,China)

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区疾病预防控制中心,广西南宁530028

出　　处：《中国热带医学》2021年第6期552-558,共7页China Tropical Medicine

基　　金：广西医疗卫生适宜技术开发与推广应用项目(No.S2020009)。

摘　　要：目的通过动态分析2015-2019年的广西西江经济带人源性沙门菌的增长情况,为预防和控制沙门菌引起的疾病提供科学参考。方法以西江经济带为研究区域,通过构建动态偏离-份额分析法模型,获取人源性沙门菌的区域增长份额、构成偏离份额和区位偏离份额。结果从2015-2019年的合计数看,西江经济带的肠炎沙门菌的总偏离量(+6.943株)、伦敦沙门菌的总偏离量(+0.725株)、火鸡沙门菌的总偏离量(+0.575)均为正值,总偏离量符号为“+”表明该沙门菌属血清型的增长速度快于广西沙门菌总体的增长速度;西江经济带的鼠伤寒沙门菌的总偏离量(-42.794株)、斯坦利沙门菌的总偏离量(-3.401株)、德尔卑沙门菌的总偏离量(-7.552株)、阿贡纳沙门菌的总偏离量(-6.127株)、韦太夫雷登沙门菌的总偏离量(-0.425株)、科特布斯沙门菌的总偏离量(-6.275株)均为负值,总偏离量符号为“-”表明该沙门菌属血清型的增长速度慢于广西沙门菌总体的增长速度。从时间序列看,西江经济带的鼠伤寒沙门菌、斯坦利沙门菌、德尔卑沙门菌、阿贡纳沙门菌的总偏离量经历先下降然后上升最后再下降的过程,西江经济带的肠炎沙门菌、韦太夫雷登沙门菌、科特布斯沙门菌的总偏离量经历先上升然后下降最后再上升的过程,西江经济带的伦敦沙门菌、火鸡沙门菌的总偏离量经历先连续上升最后下降的过程。结论西江经济带的肠炎沙门菌、伦敦沙门菌、火鸡沙门菌是具有增长优势的沙门菌属血清型。Objective The purpose of the paper was to dynamically analyze the growth of human Salmonella in Guangxi Xijiang Economic Belt from 2015 to 2019,in order to provide scientific reference for prevention and control of diseases caused by Salmonella.Methods It took Xijiang Economic Belt as the research area and constructed the dynamic shift-share analysis method model,so as to obtain the regional growth share,composition deviation share and location deviation share of human Salmonella.Results From the total of 2015-2019,the total deviations of Salmonella enteritidisy Salmonella London,and Salmonella meleagridis in Xijiang Economic Belt were+6.943 strains,+0.725 strains and+0.575 strains,respectively.The symbol "+" of the total deviation indicated that the growth rates of Salmonella in Xijiang Economic Belt were faster than the growth rate of Salmonella in Guangxi. The total deviations of Salmonella typhimurium, Salmonella stanley, Salmonella derby,Salmonella agona, Salmonella weltevreden and Salmonella kottbus in Xijiang Economic Belt were-42.794 strains,-3.401 strains,-7.552 strains,-6.127 strains,-0.425 strains and-6.275 strains, respectively. The symbol "-" of the total deviation indicated that the growth rates of Salmonella in Xijiang Economic Belt were slower than the growth rate of Salmonella in Guangxi. From the time series, the total deviations of Salmonella typhimurium, Salmonella stanley, Salmonella derby, and Salmonella agona in Xijiang Economic Belt dropped firstly, then increased, and at last went down again. On the contrary, the total deviations of Salmonella enteritidis, Salmonella weltevreden, and Salmonella kottbus increased firstly, then dropped, and at last rose again. The total deviations of Salmonella london and Salmonella meleagridis went through the process of continuous rise and final decline.Conclusion Salmonella enteritidis, Salmonella london, and Salmonella meleagridis in Xijiang Economic Belt had growth advantages.

关 键 词：人源性 沙门菌 偏离 份额 动态 

分 类 号：R372[医药卫生—病原生物学]